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Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

69.79%chance

37432761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2925

1788

Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?

Jan 2, 3:19 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.14%chance

429785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10747

1429

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

454104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

Apr 10, 2:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

27.58%chance

373736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1665

546

By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?

May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

50.18%chance

171774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

965

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

Nov 12, 6:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

21.13%chance

41510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

518

Will Kalshi reduce its taker fees in 2026?

Apr 3, 8:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.4%chance

111182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1701

876

Will AI "love bots/virtual girlfriends" be good enough to reduce the % of "unwarranted male attention" by 50% by 2027?

Feb 23, 9:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.93%chance

19758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

873

Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?

Jun 13, 1:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.39%chance

6665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1628

614

Will Lp(a)-reducing therapy cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?

May 20, 10:26 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

53.85%chance

6579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

926

Will the UK Government reduce its current Bitcoin holdings before the next general election?

Dec 3, 2:59 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM

34.32%chance

5508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

723

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

879

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