OptionProbability
A (phased) lifting of specific U.S. economic and oil sanctions on Iran.
Opening of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.
A reduction or withdrawal of U.S. naval forces from the Persian Gulf.
A permanent end to the war and a guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again
A formal commitment to end Iranian proxy activities in the Middle East.
Strict international, intrusive monitoring of Iran's nuclear facilities.
A permanent cap on Iranian uranium enrichment levels.
A restriction on Iran's development or testing of long-range ballistic missiles.
An end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
The deal will not be reached or finalized by December 31, 2026.
96
95
90
9
8
6
5
4
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2429
412
179
56
