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Prediction markets for Redwood

Will the Tesla "Redwood" be available for purchase and delivery by June 30, 2026?

Jan 29, 11:35 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

1%chance

1712642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11386

145

Will the Tesla "Redwood" be available at 25,000 USD or less?

Jan 30, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.97%chance

141419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

69

Will the Giant Sequoia, a.k.a. Giant Redwood (Sequoiadendron giganteum) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 28, 8:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.22%chance

9468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

946

386

By 2028, will I think Redwood Research has been net-good for the world?

Dec 3, 11:22 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

82.91%chance

13444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

926

What will Redwood Research's expenses be in 2026?

Apr 7, 12:44 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

3388

OptionProbability

Above $0

Above $1,000,000

Above $2,000,000

Above $3,500,000

Above $5,000,000

Above $7,500,000

Above $10,000,000

Above $15,000,000

99

87

87

87

87

50

50

41

Will Redwood Research still exist in 5 years?

Apr 26, 5:23 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

81.62%chance

10342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

352

47

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years?

Apr 26, 5:27 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

48.72%chance

11233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

110

What will Redwood Research's expenses be in 2027?

Apr 7, 12:43 AMDec 1, 12:00 AM

1100

OptionProbability

Above $0

Above $1,000,000

Above $2,000,000

Above $3,500,000

Above $5,000,000

Above $7,500,000

Above $10,000,000

Above $15,000,000

96

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

What percentage of their expenses will Redwood Research allocate to each program area in 2027?

Apr 7, 12:51 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

175

OptionProbability

AI Research

Other

75

25

What percentage of their expenses will Redwood Research allocate to each program area in 2026?

Apr 7, 12:51 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

175

OptionProbability

AI Research

Other

75

25

What percentage of their expenses will Redwood Research allocate to each program area in 2025?

Apr 7, 12:51 AMDec 1, 1:50 AM

175

OptionProbability

AI Research

Other

75

25

Will "The inaugural Redwood Research podcast" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 7, 2:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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