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Prediction markets for Redwood

Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years?

Apr 26, 5:22 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

95.08%chance

204919

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3761

125

Will the Tesla "Redwood" be available for purchase and delivery by June 30, 2026?

Jan 29, 11:35 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

5.29%chance

163555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4388

309

Will the Tesla "Redwood" be available at 25,000 USD or less?

Jan 30, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.32%chance

11639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

684

94

Will the Giant Sequoia, a.k.a. Giant Redwood (Sequoiadendron giganteum) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 28, 8:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.22%chance

9468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

946

386

By 2028, will I think Redwood Research has been net-good for the world?

Dec 3, 11:22 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

82.91%chance

13444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

926

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years?

Apr 26, 5:27 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

66.39%chance

12380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

104

Will Redwood Research still exist in 5 years?

Apr 26, 5:23 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

66.63%chance

9252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

77

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years?

Apr 26, 5:27 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

48.72%chance

11233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

110

Will "The inaugural Redwood Research podcast" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 7, 2:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Who will win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League championship

Jan 22, 1:24 AMSep 21, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

New York Atlas

Utah Archers

Boston Cannons

California Redwoods

Carolina Chaos

Denver Outlaws

Maryland Whipsnakes

Philadelphia Waterdogs

Other

22

20

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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