Reels News

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reelected president of Ukraine?

Jan 16, 5:53 PMNov 30, 4:59 AM

20.82%chance

16414179

OptionVotes

YES

2025

132

Will Javier Milei be reelected for a second term as the President of Argentina?

Dec 21, 6:40 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

77%chance

7712808

OptionVotes

YES

1805

537

Conditional on trump being reelected in 2024, will he become a dictator?

Feb 28, 11:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.3%chance

212633

OptionVotes

YES

999

733

If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term?

Jul 4, 11:15 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

83.41%chance

281679

OptionVotes

YES

2242

446

Will Maura Healey be reelected as Governor of Massachusetts in 2026?

Feb 7, 7:11 PMNov 4, 6:59 AM

68.16%chance

5495

OptionVotes

YES

1463

683

Will Boston Mayor Michelle Wu be reelected in 2025?

Jul 27, 11:37 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

80.84%chance

14439

OptionVotes

YES

255

135

Will Nancy Pelosi run for reelection in 2026?

Nov 11, 12:07 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

58.12%chance

16343

OptionVotes

YES

118

By when will any of the the UK/EU/US enact content regulation on short form videos (TikTok, Instagram Reels, etc)

Feb 22, 6:11 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

2165

OptionProbability

2035

2040

2045

Later/never

2030

Conditional on no Kirchners being on any major party presidential ticket, will Milei be reelected in 2027?

Nov 29, 2:35 AMDec 2, 2:59 AM

70%chance

396

OptionVotes

YES

153

What do you believe is the upper threshold of harm that AI/machine systems could cause this century (w/ 1-99% threat)?

Apr 6, 2:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

461

OptionProbability

X-risk that can wipe out the human species in a short-timespan due to conscious/planning machine intelligence

X-risk that can wipe out the human species due to cascading effects without any central plan/conscious intent (potential for resistance but insufficient)

Events creating a global war-scale event that the human species can survive but with losses in the millions or at most billions

Cascading effects (y-risk)* that can threaten millions of lives but can be reeled in** due to dynamics/buffers preventing x-risk territory being viable?

Is aye aye mandem gonna take over the insta reels before the end of august

Jul 30, 6:18 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

100

Eunisses Hernandez reelected to Los Angeles City Council in 2026?

Mar 28, 2:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

Reels News

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Prediction markets for Reels

Prediction markets for Reels

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reelected president of Ukraine?

Will Javier Milei be reelected for a second term as the President of Argentina?

Conditional on trump being reelected in 2024, will he become a dictator?

If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term?

Will Maura Healey be reelected as Governor of Massachusetts in 2026?

Will Boston Mayor Michelle Wu be reelected in 2025?

Will Nancy Pelosi run for reelection in 2026?

By when will any of the the UK/EU/US enact content regulation on short form videos (TikTok, Instagram Reels, etc)

Conditional on no Kirchners being on any major party presidential ticket, will Milei be reelected in 2027?

What do you believe is the upper threshold of harm that AI/machine systems could cause this century (w/ 1-99% threat)?

Is aye aye mandem gonna take over the insta reels before the end of august

Eunisses Hernandez reelected to Los Angeles City Council in 2026?

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