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Top stories

François Bayrou Demands Effort From Highest Incomes, Targets Tax Loopholes and Corporate Subsidies in 2026 Budget

François Bayrou Demands Effort From Highest Incomes, Targets Tax Loopholes and Corporate Subsidies in 2026 Budget

Authors

7

7 months ago

Prediction markets for REF

Will Reform win the next UK election?

Aug 13, 11:58 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

39.65%chance

13494236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

900

Will the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?

Sep 9, 7:51 AMSep 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

1611909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

655

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.42%chance

236807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15488

6457

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

15.45%chance

206717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2340

427

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

52.71%chance

245995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2063

1941

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

74.49%chance

395640

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3686

2105

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.72%chance

255089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5187

5054

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

72.96%chance

243510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2348

1009

How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?

Mar 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

163107

OptionProbability

Above 15

8 - 10

5 - 7

11 - 15

0

1

2

3 - 4

46

21

13

12

2

2

2

2

Reform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?

Sep 18, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.44%chance

41265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

38

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

Dec 14, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

4172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

When will and ex-pro ref a premier league game?

Dec 17, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

After 2035

Other

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

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