Reflection AI News

14 hours ago

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.89%chance

314853485

OptionVotes

YES

6670

3655

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

25141

17457

What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?

Aug 26, 1:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

326102019

OptionProbability

Google Deepmind

OpenAI

Anthropic

XAI

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.9%chance

33599775

OptionVotes

YES

4861

3188

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

2217614

OptionVotes

YES

1099

815

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

54.96%chance

365319

OptionVotes

YES

5032

4011

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

594589

OptionProbability

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.23%chance

261269

OptionVotes

YES

1408

785

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2026?

Jan 17, 9:37 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

57.7%chance

231241

OptionVotes

YES

1163

672

Before 2028, will there be a major REFLECTIVELY self-improving AI policy*?

Feb 23, 5:59 PMJan 1, 5:57 PM

68.84%chance

11561

OptionVotes

YES

211

154

Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?

Feb 17, 10:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.44%chance

15556

OptionVotes

YES

1086

956

What will be the main theme of the biggest highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI by 2028?

Feb 18, 11:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10223

OptionProbability

Weather Forecaster

Entertainment

Sex

Other

Therapy

There will be nothing that satisfies the criteria for highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI

Politics

Science

Career

Education

Coaching

Community

News

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Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2026?

Before 2028, will there be a major REFLECTIVELY self-improving AI policy*?

Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?

What will be the main theme of the biggest highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI by 2028?

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