Reflection AI News

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.28%chance

344879198

OptionVotes

YES

4502

3083

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

89425

8110

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.56%chance

350107942

OptionVotes

YES

4159

4150

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

YES

1041

910

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

34%chance

422919

OptionVotes

YES

1515

240

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

1167

885

Before 2028, will there be a major REFLECTIVELY self-improving AI policy*?

Feb 23, 5:59 PMJan 1, 5:57 PM

48.34%chance

12621

OptionVotes

YES

214

124

Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?

Feb 17, 10:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.91%chance

16606

OptionVotes

YES

1136

950

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

YES

994

What will be the main theme of the biggest highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI by 2028?

Feb 18, 11:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10223

OptionProbability

Weather Forecaster

Entertainment

Sex

Other

Therapy

There will be nothing that satisfies the criteria for highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI

Politics

Science

Career

Education

Coaching

Community

News

When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?

Oct 5, 10:04 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM

481

OptionProbability

Oct 13 to Oct 19

By Oct 12, 2026

Oct 20 to Oct 31

Nov 1 to Nov 15

Not by Nov 15, 2026

Reflection AI News

Prediction markets for Reflection AI

Prediction markets for Reflection AI

Prediction markets for Reflection AI

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Before 2028, will there be a major REFLECTIVELY self-improving AI policy*?

Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

What will be the main theme of the biggest highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI by 2028?

When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?

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