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Prediction markets for Refute

When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video?

Mar 7, 1:54 PMMar 14, 10:59 PM

305279

OptionProbability

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-04-01

Q1 2024

Q2 2024 or earlier

Q3 2024 or earlier

Q4 2024 or earlier

Q1 2025 or earlier

Q2 2025 or earlier

Q3 2025 or earlier

Q4 2025 or earlier

56

55

43

28

9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?

Sep 29, 12:01 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.59%chance

333969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

735

Is Whistleblower David Charles Grusch Telling The Truth About Non-Human Craft Recoveries?

Jun 6, 1:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.73%chance

183089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

916

Will abiogenesis be demonstrated in the lab?

Jan 23, 5:33 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

452853

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2038

Before 2036

Before 2034

Before 2032

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2026

48

36

30

23

15

11

7

0

What’s The Truth Behind Jeremy Corbell's UAP Claims?

Jan 18, 11:08 AMJan 25, 3:59 PM

112026

OptionProbability

Misinformation

Deliberate Falsehood

Reverse Engineering of Human-Origin Craft

Reverse Engineering by Non-U.S. Entities

100% true

Existence of Non-Human Craft, Not Reverse Engineered

Non-Functional Non-Human Craft

Fragments of Non-Human Craft

87

48

8

8

1

1

1

1

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.9%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

902

Will JWST find Population III stars before 2027?

Jan 4, 3:45 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

34.03%chance

7747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

122

Will Riemann hypothesis be proven or refuted before 2050?

Mar 26, 6:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.76%chance

11407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

227

159

When (if ever) will Bohmian mechanics overthrow quantum theory?

Nov 12, 7:09 PMNov 13, 7:04 PM

3239

OptionProbability

Before the end of 2040

Before the end of 2045

Before the end of 2035

Before the end of 2030

15

15

10

5

When will we measure the mass of neutrino?

Mar 6, 3:29 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

138

OptionProbability

Before 2036

Before 2034

Before 2032

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2026

57

56

54

50

43

0

Why are there so many duplicate and bland questions on Manifold?

Jan 18, 9:31 PM

00

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