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Prediction markets for Regula

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.54%chance

17534125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14201

7469

Will Joel Embiid finish his career with 2 or more regular season MVPs?

Jun 27, 3:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.94%chance

242285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1610

765

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.34%chance

272080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

850

Will the FDP receive more than 5% of the vote in the next German federal election (regularly in 2029)?

Mar 3, 9:59 PMMar 31, 9:59 PM

31.14%chance

111496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

686

Will Dwarf Fortress still be receiving regular updates when James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases?

Jan 17, 5:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

86.61%chance

241325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

771

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030

Dec 22, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.32%chance

28720

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

941

Which species will get the first regulator-approved drug with lifespan extension as the indication?

Oct 1, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6680

OptionProbability

Dogs

None before 2035

Another species

Humans

41

25

21

12

Will Aaron Donald be awarded Pro Bowl honors or AP All-Pro honors for the 2026 NFL regular season?

Aug 31, 1:54 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

23.33%chance

8612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

819

Will Kevin Warren still be with the Bears at the start of the 2027 regular season?

Oct 2, 3:37 PMSep 9, 7:00 PM

62.97%chance

3550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

767

By the end of 2035, will I be able to use a hoverbike as a regular mode of transportation across New York Harbor?

Jul 13, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.37%chance

8304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

806

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