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Will Tua Tagovailoa retire from the NFL by the start of the 2026 regular season?

Sep 5, 3:12 AMSep 1, 11:59 PM

19.96%chance

32817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2003

499

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.34%chance

272080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

850

Will Joel Embiid finish his career with 2 or more regular season MVPs?

Jun 27, 3:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.36%chance

221935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

818

Will either the AFC West or the NFC North will have the best combined record in the 2025 regular NFL season?

Jan 28, 5:05 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

16%chance

31934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2291

436

Will the FDP receive more than 5% of the vote in the next German federal election (regularly in 2029)?

Mar 3, 9:59 PMMar 31, 9:59 PM

37.34%chance

101090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

787

Will AI be regularly used to diagnose complex diseases by 2028?

Jan 19, 2:08 AMJul 2, 4:59 AM

30.66%chance

26980

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

923

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

Will Dwarf Fortress still be receiving regular updates when James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases?

Jan 17, 5:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.02%chance

23775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1321

878

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030

Dec 22, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.32%chance

28720

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

941

The Elam ending will used in a regular season or playoffs NBA game before 2030

Mar 6, 4:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.56%chance

17453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

813

OU requires hechsher for plain coffee from regular shops by Dec 31, 2026?

Dec 3, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.88%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

998

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