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Prediction markets for REI

Will Jordan Chiles's bronze medal be reinstated?

Aug 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

22.54%chance

8356798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1854

539

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

85507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15284

6552

Will Nick Reiner be pardoned by Trump?

Dec 16, 3:32 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

2.62%chance

185290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5174

62

Will King Charles III of England's reign be long enough for the development of AGI?

Sep 8, 6:44 PMSep 16, 6:59 AM

12.26%chance

655133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1917

763

Will Jimmy Fallon outlast Trump's reign as host of the The Tonight Show?

Sep 19, 3:21 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

66.8%chance

254576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

918

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

May 29, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.78%chance

394345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

541

Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode?

Jun 28, 10:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.49%chance

144026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1475

678

How Long will King Charles reign?

May 7, 7:10 AMMay 7, 8:59 PM

16.52%chance

333367

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1629

773

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.55%chance

121107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

746

Will exoskeleton hiking pants be available to purchase from REI before June 2027?

Apr 25, 5:07 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

41.08%chance

111042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

835

Will the 500 euro note be reissued by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.69%chance

25477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

880

Who will win -66kg at the 2026 ADCC World Championship?

Jan 13, 6:03 AMSep 10, 12:59 AM

219

OptionProbability

Diogo "Baby Shark" Reis

Dorian Olivarez

Niko Mikuliszyn

Deandre Corbe

Other

40

22

13

13

13

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