Reig News

2025 [resolves on Jan 1st]

The death of Jimmy Carter

The Paris Olympics closing ceremony

The launch of GPT-5

The release of the iPhone 16

Both the 2024 US & UK General Elections

Bitcoin reaches $100k

Elon Musk has another child

GTA 6 release

The death of Joe Biden

The war in Ukraine comes to an end

A Category 5 hurricane hits the US

Weak AGI achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

Peak Oil Demand

The Enhanced Games opening ceremony

Man’s return to the moon

EV sales in the USA overtake ICE

Will Smith attends the Oscars

A "superintelligent oracle" achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

AGI is achieved as judged by Manifold

Bitcoin falls to $30k

Female US President

Donald Trump goes to jail

YES

YES

YES

NO

Between 10 and 30 years

Between 3 and 10 years

30 years or longer

Between 1 and 3 years

Between 1 and 4 months

Between 4 months and 1 year

YES

NO