OptionProbability
OpenAI
xAI
Alphabet / Google
OpenAI (after January)
OpenAI (after February)
Google (after February)
xAI (After initial Grok 3 entry)
Google (after 2.5 release)
OpenAI (May or later)
DeepSeek
Moonshot
Anthropic
xAI (April or later)
Safe Superintelligence (SSI)
Meta
Microsoft (?)
Apple (?)
Mistral
Reka AI
100
93
89
12
10
8
5
4
3
2
Alibaba (Qwen)
Moonshot (Kimi)
thinking machines
Nvidia
01 AI (Yi)
AI21 Labs (Jamba)
Cohere (Command R+)
NexusFlow (Athene)
Safe Superintelligence / SSI
96
66
51
43
31
22
16
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