OptionProbability
OpenAI
xAI
Anthropic
Alphabet / Google
OpenAI (after January)
OpenAI (after February)
Google (after February)
xAI (After initial Grok 3 entry)
xAI (April or later)
Google (after 2.5 release)
Anthropic (after Opus 4.1)
OpenAI (May or later)
Alibaba / Qwen
DeepSeek
Microsoft
Meta
Safe Superintelligence (SSI)
Apple (?)
Mistral
Reka AI
Moonshot
100
67
5
4
3
2
Alibaba (Qwen)
Moonshot (Kimi)
AI21 Labs (Jamba)
Safe Superintelligence / SSI
NexusFlow (Athene)
01 AI (Yi)
Cohere (Command R+)
Nvidia
thinking machines
Z.ai
Baidu (Ernie)
Thinking Machines Lab
99
98
80
76
73
71
50
33
31
22
21
18
16
11