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Prediction markets for Related Digital

Will Maduro die in U.S. custody?

Jan 3, 7:52 PMFeb 28, 7:51 PM

45.74%chance

7510384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

197

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

Mar 24, 5:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

56.41%chance

181372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1318

626

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

38.12%chance

191260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1168

570

When will I get my "BritCard" ID?

Oct 1, 1:29 PMJan 1, 2:27 PM

3838

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

56

54

46

36

Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?

May 23, 10:15 PMMay 1, 7:00 AM

24.54%chance

24710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1312

868

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will Ubuntu be sued in Brazil?

Mar 17, 2:35 PMDec 31, 2:34 PM

13.79%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

40

Will people like the Greenland resolution?

Jan 20, 6:54 PMDec 31, 6:52 PM

61.78%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

Federal Reserve announces wholesale CBDC pilot before 2028?

Jun 10, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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