Related Group News

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.53%chance

1418546

OptionVotes

YES

1664

601

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

2438

1224

Will the SEC charge Donald Trump with stock manipulation related to DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group) by Dec. 2025?

Sep 17, 6:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.29%chance

157172

OptionVotes

YES

6529

153

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.54%chance

383908

OptionVotes

YES

7894

5344

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.4%chance

423903

OptionVotes

YES

1045

833

Will the FDA ban xylitol before 2030?

Jun 14, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.28%chance

91660

OptionVotes

YES

2114

473

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?

Jun 2, 5:05 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

53.31%chance

151625

OptionVotes

YES

1069

936

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

YES

990

970

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?

May 20, 5:26 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

49.93%chance

9570

OptionVotes

YES

1001

999

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?

May 21, 10:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

54.39%chance

6564

OptionVotes

YES

1092

916

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2033?

May 18, 12:47 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

56.27%chance

9365

OptionVotes

YES

1134

882

If Jair Bolsonaro is condemned to prison, what set of charges will this be based on?

Jul 10, 3:41 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

5202

OptionProbability

Involvement with an attempted coup d'état after he lost the 2022 Elections and/or the 1/8/23 events

Selling jewelry and other luxury gifts given to the Presidency under his term for his personal benefit

Defrauding official COVID-19 vaccination records for him and his family members to travel to the USA

Something pandemic-related (dissemination of fake news, encouraging people not to take protective measures, the Covaxin scandal etc)

Interfering with the Federal Police for personal purposes

Leaking information related to ongoing investigations of hacker attacks on the Electoral Justice

Something related to an involvement with the paramilitary groups in Rio de Janeiro

Something related to ghost employees or salary kickback schemes in his or his family's parliamentary cabinets

Other

Whale harassment

Related Group News

Prediction markets for Related Group

Prediction markets for Related Group

Prediction markets for Related Group

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Will the SEC charge Donald Trump with stock manipulation related to DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group) by Dec. 2025?

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Will the FDA ban xylitol before 2030?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2033?

If Jair Bolsonaro is condemned to prison, what set of charges will this be based on?

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