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Prediction markets for Relay

Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 6:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

91.11%chance

33095892

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19375

4265

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59%chance

8615099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

834

Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan

Aug 7, 9:32 AMAug 10, 10:59 PM

2.47%chance

242254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

628

16

Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2030?

Jan 2, 4:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

94.53%chance

201303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

416

24

Will China be stripped of at least three swimming medals from the Tokyo Olympics?

Apr 20, 10:16 AMAug 31, 3:59 PM

17.82%chance

181077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

474

98

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2030?

Nov 13, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32%chance

13938

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

169

Will CGP Grey return to Cortex podcast before 2027?

Mar 1, 9:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.53%chance

11710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

413

24

Will Donald Trump post on Nostr?

Sep 17, 11:35 AMSep 24, 9:59 PM

7.5%chance

13464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1314

942

Wearable self-driving car safety dongle with 1m users by end of 2030

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.58%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

374

134

Will Ukraine attack Belarus by the end of 2026

Jun 23, 9:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.98%chance

6113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

82

Will "The consequences of locking intelligence away..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 1, 7:25 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

998

Does an anonymous email relay exist to connect User A and User B with anonymized emails and names similar to craigslist?

Jul 13, 11:22 PMJul 14, 6:59 AM

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