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Prediction markets for Relay

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2025?

Nov 12, 11:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.58%chance

4321181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7902

636

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

7512488

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will China be stripped of at least three swimming medals from the Tokyo Olympics?

Apr 20, 10:16 AMAug 31, 3:59 PM

25.92%chance

17917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

375

125

Can Israel go a week without violating the ceasefire by killing Palestinians in Gaza in 2025?

Oct 18, 2:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.93%chance

19874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

486

21

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2030?

Nov 13, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.24%chance

9588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

148

Will Donald Trump post on Nostr?

Sep 17, 11:35 AMSep 24, 9:59 PM

7.5%chance

13464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1314

942

Manifold pre-money valuation in the next funding round (in thousands of dollars)

Feb 9, 3:48 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

50.72%chance

6410

OptionProbability

NO

YES

717

272

Wearable self-driving car safety dongle with 1m users by end of 2030

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.58%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

374

134

Does an anonymous email relay exist to connect User A and User B with anonymized emails and names similar to craigslist?

Jul 13, 11:22 PMJul 14, 6:59 AM

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