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Prediction markets for Relay

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71%chance

9516173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1565

639

Will China be stripped of at least three swimming medals from the Tokyo Olympics?

Apr 20, 10:16 AMAug 31, 3:59 PM

25.92%chance

181176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

375

125

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2030?

Nov 13, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32%chance

13938

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

169

Will Apple fix its IP address leaks before 2028?

Aug 31, 4:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.58%chance

10824

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1380

724

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 6:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.16%chance

13764

OptionVotes

YES

NO

555

18

Will CGP Grey return to Cortex podcast before 2027?

Mar 1, 9:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.53%chance

11710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

413

24

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Comcast by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 6:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.12%chance

11660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

557

18

Will Donald Trump post on Nostr?

Sep 17, 11:35 AMSep 24, 9:59 PM

7.5%chance

13464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1314

942

Wearable self-driving car safety dongle with 1m users by end of 2030

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.25%chance

9356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

434

125

Will Ukraine attack Belarus by the end of 2026

Jun 23, 9:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.49%chance

12306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

Will "The consequences of locking intelligence away..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 1, 7:25 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

998

Does an anonymous email relay exist to connect User A and User B with anonymized emails and names similar to craigslist?

Jul 13, 11:22 PMJul 14, 6:59 AM

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