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Prediction markets for Remotion

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

69.87%chance

281155182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1524

657

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3134079

OptionProbability

40-50%

30-40%

50-60%

20-30%

60-70%

10-20%

70-80%

≥80%

<10%

26

24

18

12

6

4

4

3

2

Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?

Feb 18, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10217400

OptionProbability

AI + Quantum Computing

Bitcoin + AI

Energy harvesting + sensor ubiquity

AI + Medicine

AI + Genetics

AI + Robotics

AI + Spatial Computing

Social media + AI

AI + Internet

Bitcoin + XR

AI + Advanced Materials

AI + Physics

Fintech + AI

Quantum Computing + Materials Science

AI+Blockchain

3D Printing + Materials Science

BCI + Internet

Mobile Technology + Social Media

XR + AI

AI + Prediction Markets

AI + IoT

AI + Bioengineering

AI + VR

Nuclear Energy + Transportation

Wearable Technology + Telemedicine

GPS + Real-time Traffic Data

Haptics + BCI

AI + fossil fuels

Vertical farming + Solar

BCI + Remote sensing

Decentralized IP Verification and Education (Blockchain Credentials)

BCI + Dating Apps

Predictive Markets and Constitutional Alignment of AI

53

41

34

33

33

32

32

31

25

25

25

23

23

22

21

20

19

18

17

17

17

17

16

14

14

14

13

12

11

11

9

5

3

Will AI automate all remote jobs that do not require a legal person by Jan 1st 2027?

Jan 15, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.84%chance

246287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4436

225

What will be the highest reported Remote Labor Index (RLI) AI automation rate by the end of each of the following years?

Oct 29, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62217

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

87

86

84

83

79

40

4

Will Coefficient Giving set up LLM agents with org accounts and a remote worker-like interface by 5/18/27?

May 20, 1:17 AMMay 18, 12:00 AM

63.18%chance

4511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

763

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11475

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2025

2029

Other

2030 or later

71

13

10

2

2

2

1

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Apr 20, 3:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.02%chance

13293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

248

40

Roblox employees will spend more time using Roblox for remote meetings than with video

Sep 10, 3:00 PMSep 8, 3:00 PM

18.67%chance

9212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

317

63

Will I get an FAA Part 107 license, or Remote Pilot Certificate, within one year?

Feb 12, 8:44 AMFeb 12, 8:37 AM

60.51%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will any major U.S. city mandate remote work options for city employees by 2026?

Oct 27, 8:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.09%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

68.69%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

99

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