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Prediction markets for RENDER

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.79%chance

3318998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14362

7595

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818719

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

53

51

42

35

19

0

By which year will Gaussian Splats be considered the dominant 3D game rendering mode?

Dec 12, 6:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

152807

OptionProbability

Never.

2029

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

75

25

23

20

8

1

1

iMessage, phone, gmail rendered unusable within 90 days due to spam

Feb 12, 12:59 PMMay 14, 12:59 PM

1.02%chance

262725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

849

79

Will Siberian Node’s generative pipeline render traditional Hollywood studio production obsolete by the end of 2026?

Apr 20, 12:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.24%chance

172510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

37

By 2050, will development of biotechnology and genetic engineering render term "transgender" useless?

Sep 18, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

14.92%chance

181155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1511

918

Will a new web browser rendering engine reach over 2% market share by 2035?

Sep 26, 3:43 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.15%chance

17873

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1360

670

Will over-redaction render the Epstein files useless?

Dec 18, 10:59 PMDec 18, 10:49 PM

80.61%chance

13669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

204

49

By 2050, will development of biotechnology and genetic engineering render term "transgender" useless?

Sep 18, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

7317

OptionProbability

no

yes

Other

46

30

24

Will the US and/or Israel successfully physically seize, remove, destroy-render Iran's stockpile of HEU unusable?

Mar 23, 9:57 AMMay 30, 9:59 PM

4301

OptionProbability

Apr 1-15, 2026

Apr 16-30, 2026

Mar 23-31, 2026

37

32

30

Which will be widespread in videogames to render graphics in 2030: AI or raytracing?

Aug 6, 6:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9177

OptionProbability

Raytracing

AI

53

47

Will "Do Not Render Your Counterfactuals" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 8:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

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