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Prediction markets for ReNew Power

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:17 PMJul 2, 5:00 PM

85%chance

434389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1908

644

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

Will a tech giant build a dedicated nuclear power plant for AI operations before 2040?

Sep 25, 8:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

76.04%chance

101092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1782

561

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

Jul 8, 9:13 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

52.8%chance

12482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

95

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.24%chance

9400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

How many nuclear reactors will Spain have in 2028?

May 3, 4:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8387

OptionProbability

6

7

Below 6

Above 7

36

27

11

4

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

13356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

965

Will even 500m of Saudi Arabia's "The Line" project be built until 2030?

May 18, 11:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.81%chance

10268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

905

Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?

Jan 21, 6:19 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

9.06%chance

2253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

317

32

Will there be another nation-wide blackout in Spain by 2027?

Jan 1, 2:38 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

14.22%chance

5235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

344

115

How high will the industry average german THG quota payout tonne of CO2 be in 2025?

Jan 2, 10:37 AMFeb 28, 10:59 PM

2174

OptionProbability

120€ - <140€

90€ - <100€

80€ - <90€

100€ - <120€

60€ - <70€

70€ - <80€

140€ - <160€

<40€

50€ - <60€

160€ - <180€

180€ - <200€

≥200€

40€ - <50€

24

14

13

11

7

7

7

3

3

3

3

3

2

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