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Prediction markets for ReNew Power

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:17 PMJul 2, 5:00 PM

85%chance

434389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1908

644

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12045

8363

Will WW3 start before gta6?

Feb 28, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.62%chance

252493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

29

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

Will even 500m of Saudi Arabia's "The Line" project be built until 2030?

May 18, 11:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.54%chance

121326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2145

543

Will a tech giant build a dedicated nuclear power plant for AI operations before 2040?

Sep 25, 8:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

76.04%chance

101092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1782

561

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.35%chance

31051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11051

8806

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.94%chance

12601

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1526

656

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

13356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

965

Will Katharina Reiche stop being the german Minister of Energy by the next regular election?

Mar 5, 3:08 PMSep 27, 11:59 PM

65.51%chance

10255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

73

☀️ 🏭 When will the US meet the goal of 2¢/kWh for utility-scale photovoltaics?

Dec 7, 3:52 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10221

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2025-2027

Beyond 2030 (or never)

Before the end of 2024

38

26

21

15

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