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Prediction markets for REP

Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 20, 12:02 AMFeb 20, 4:59 AM

751967757

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Other

Tucker Carlson

Ron Desantis

Donald Trump Jr

Donald Trump, Sr

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Brian Kemp

Ivanka Trump

None

Greg Abbott

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Tim Scott

Vivek Ramaswamy

Kristi Noem

Mike Johnson

Matt Gaetz

Lauren Boebert

Tom Cotton

Elon Musk

Kari Lake

Sarah Sanders

Chris Sununu

Josh Hawley

Steven Mnuchin

Elise Stefanik

Ben Carson

Jamie Dimon

@Mira

Nick Fuentes

Doug Burgum

Paul Ryan

Tulsi Gabbard

41

27

12

4

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

55.33%chance

194359051

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1114

899

Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?

Jun 8, 6:16 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

10.06%chance

364295779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2599

659

2028 Republican nominee?

Sep 14, 5:38 AMSep 6, 6:59 AM

432264577

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Other

Tucker Carlson

Donald Trump Jr

Donald Trump Sr.

Ron Desantis

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Vivek Ramaswamy

Greg Abbott

Tulsi Gabbard

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Ted Cruz

Nick Fuentes

Paul Ryan

42

27

13

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

156235399

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

89

11

Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?

Jul 1, 9:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.26%chance

9840466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11070

9040

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.46%chance

1620038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29132

4187

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.4%chance

198426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15475

6475

Will Rep. Thomas Massie run for and win Mitch McConnell's vacant senate seat in the 2026 Midterms?

Mar 2, 2:46 AMNov 5, 7:59 AM

3.77%chance

105297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5053

198

Which senate flip is more likely? Dems take TX or OH, or Reps take GA or MI?

Jul 28, 3:27 PMNov 6, 4:25 PM

10495

OptionProbability

Dems flip TX or OH

neither

Reps flip GA or MI

both

45

30

23

2

Will a SOTA open-sourced LLM forecasting system make major use of quasilinguistic neural reps (QNRs) before 2027?

Apr 25, 8:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.32%chance

2136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

267

82

Will Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Ever Run in a Democratic Presidential Primary?

May 23, 11:24 AMMay 23, 11:23 AM

46.62%chance

429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

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