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Prediction markets for REP

2028 Republican nominee?

Sep 14, 5:38 AMSep 6, 6:59 AM

522969232

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Other

Tucker Carlson

Ron Desantis

Donald Trump Jr

Donald Trump Sr.

Ted Cruz

Thomas Massie

Rand Paul

Pete Hegseth

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Vivek Ramaswamy

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Nick Fuentes

Greg Abbott

Paul Ryan

Tulsi Gabbard

46

20

11

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?

Jun 8, 6:16 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

6.2%chance

600533634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40730

17858

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

184303230

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

94

6

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

Dec 8, 6:07 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

34.34%chance

522217657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27632

14389

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.5%chance

2365863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55552

2477

Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?

Jul 1, 9:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.45%chance

10543191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11221

8901

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

10.25%chance

1828544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29618

3383

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.78%chance

2412263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17884

5607

Which senate flip is more likely? Dems take TX or OH, or Reps take GA or MI?

Jul 28, 3:27 PMNov 6, 4:25 PM

13971

OptionProbability

Dems flip TX or OH

Reps flip GA or MI

neither

both

60

20

15

5

Will a SOTA open-sourced LLM forecasting system make major use of quasilinguistic neural reps (QNRs) before 2027?

Apr 25, 8:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.32%chance

2136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

267

82

Will Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Ever Run in a Democratic Presidential Primary?

May 23, 11:24 AMMay 23, 11:23 AM

46.62%chance

429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Under 55! U.S. Rep. Presidential nominee will not have reached age 55 by the time they win the nomination in 2028.

Jun 1, 12:42 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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