REP News

2028 Republican nominee?

Sep 14, 5:38 AMSep 6, 6:59 AM

501816097

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Other

Tucker Carlson

Ron Desantis

Donald Trump Jr

Donald Trump Sr.

Thomas Massie

Rand Paul

Pete Hegseth

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Vivek Ramaswamy

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Ted Cruz

Nick Fuentes

Greg Abbott

Paul Ryan

Tulsi Gabbard

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

180289593

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?

Jul 1, 9:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.37%chance

9940816

OptionVotes

YES

10654

9390

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.03%chance

1927975

OptionVotes

YES

31877

3892

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.18%chance

1826374

OptionVotes

YES

31489

3182

Will Rep. Thomas Massie run for and win Mitch McConnell's vacant senate seat in the 2026 Midterms?

Mar 2, 2:46 AMNov 5, 7:59 AM

2.38%chance

1210427

OptionVotes

YES

6410

156

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.72%chance

208476

OptionVotes

YES

15356

6525

What is true about the absence of Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (Add Answers)

Jun 1, 8:13 PMDec 31, 9:12 PM

372925

OptionProbability

Kean is seen in public by the end of June 2026

Kean is seen in public before election day

Kean returns to congress on June 30 or sooner

Kean went to rehab

Kean has a terminal illness

The cause of his absence was that he had a heart attack or stroke

Kean has been outside of the United States during his absence

The cause of his absence was a health issue that his wife had

He was kidnapped

Kean is in a permanent vegetative state

Kean has been confirmed to have died before the end of June 2026

Kean ends his re-election bid before being seen in public

100

Which senate flip is more likely? Dems take TX or OH, or Reps take GA or MI?

Jul 28, 3:27 PMNov 6, 4:25 PM

12693

OptionProbability

Dems flip TX or OH

Reps flip GA or MI

neither

both

Will a SOTA open-sourced LLM forecasting system make major use of quasilinguistic neural reps (QNRs) before 2027?

Apr 25, 8:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.32%chance

2136

OptionVotes

YES

267

Will Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Ever Run in a Democratic Presidential Primary?

May 23, 11:24 AMMay 23, 11:23 AM

46.62%chance

429

OptionVotes

YES

107

Under 55! U.S. Rep. Presidential nominee will not have reached age 55 by the time they win the nomination in 2028.

Jun 1, 12:42 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

120

REP News

Prediction markets for REP

Prediction markets for REP

Prediction markets for REP

2028 Republican nominee?

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Will Rep. Thomas Massie run for and win Mitch McConnell's vacant senate seat in the 2026 Midterms?

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

What is true about the absence of Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (Add Answers)

Which senate flip is more likely? Dems take TX or OH, or Reps take GA or MI?

Will a SOTA open-sourced LLM forecasting system make major use of quasilinguistic neural reps (QNRs) before 2027?

Will Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Ever Run in a Democratic Presidential Primary?

Under 55! U.S. Rep. Presidential nominee will not have reached age 55 by the time they win the nomination in 2028.

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