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Prediction markets for Replicate
Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?
Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM
9.85%chance
1423446
OptionVotes
30273
3309
Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)
May 4, 12:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM
67.32%chance
13611287
OptionVotes
1936
703
Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?
Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM
76.07%chance
274369
OptionVotes
1783
561
AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
77.81%chance
212603
OptionVotes
1873
534
By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?
Apr 22, 9:43 PMDec 28, 7:59 AM
19.93%chance
262186
OptionVotes
1815
658
Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?
Mar 16, 11:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
52.64%chance
361361
OptionVotes
1132
819
Will the Tadpole Experiment experiment be independently replicated in the next 10 years?
Jul 4, 10:42 PMJul 4, 10:40 PM
22.67%chance
41063
OptionVotes
1847
541
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print ever get replicated?
Mar 4, 10:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
12.5%chance
19603
OptionVotes
1275
917
Successful replication of 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?
Dec 11, 2:54 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM
36.25%chance
4326
OptionVotes
1331
759
Nobel Prize by 2035 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
Aug 1, 6:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
80.77%chance
12204
OptionVotes
1067
970
By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?
Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
35.98%chance
14110
OptionVotes
1006
979
Replication attempt on 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?
Dec 11, 2:32 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM
50.99%chance
120
OptionVotes
1025
985