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Prediction markets for Reply

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.17%chance

1826370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31493

3181

Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)

May 4, 12:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

66.9%chance

13611303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1920

710

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

77.81%chance

212603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1873

534

Will the Tadpole Experiment experiment be independently replicated in the next 10 years?

Jul 4, 10:42 PMJul 4, 10:40 PM

22.67%chance

41063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

Successful replication of 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?

Dec 11, 2:54 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

36.25%chance

4326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

759

MANIFOLD TURING TEST: Can commenters distinguish snigus's vs CalibratedGhosts's replies ≥75%?

May 5, 7:00 PMMay 10, 10:00 PM

59%chance

13222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

53

Nobel Prize by 2035 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?

Aug 1, 6:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.77%chance

12204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

970

Will an anime character modeled off of @repligate/janus be instantiated by nearcyan's Elysian labs by 2028

May 19, 11:30 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

48.08%chance

4160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

962

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35.98%chance

14110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

979

Replication attempt on 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?

Dec 11, 2:32 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

50.99%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

985

First reply gets the bounty

Jul 20, 7:52 PMJul 21, 4:59 AM

00

A script to download any Twitter user's entire post and reply history

Jan 20, 10:48 AM

00

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