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Prediction markets for Reply

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

8.47%chance

1949448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32903

3045

Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)

May 4, 12:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

68.75%chance

14111499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1991

677

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

Apr 22, 9:43 PMDec 28, 7:59 AM

67.19%chance

384159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1552

520

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

82.69%chance

252991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2185

458

Will small open weight models self replicate as a virus on smart TVs and similar devices before July of 2027?

Oct 12, 10:33 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

38.74%chance

302150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

795

Will the Tadpole Experiment experiment be independently replicated in the next 10 years?

Jul 4, 10:42 PMJul 4, 10:40 PM

22.67%chance

41063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

Successful replication of 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?

Dec 11, 2:54 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

36.25%chance

4326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

759

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35.93%chance

19227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

981

Will an anime character modeled off of @repligate/janus be instantiated by nearcyan's Elysian labs by 2028

May 19, 11:30 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

48.08%chance

4160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

962

Replication attempt on 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?

Dec 11, 2:32 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

50.99%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

985

A script to download any Twitter user's entire post and reply history

Jan 20, 10:48 AM

00

First reply gets the bounty

Jul 20, 7:52 PMJul 21, 4:59 AM

00

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