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Prediction markets for Republic

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

23.13%chance

212377727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1824

549

Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?

Feb 1, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.75%chance

337026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1589

641

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Jun 1, 6:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

51.94%chance

244639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

962

[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Aug 27, 3:23 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

21.61%chance

203262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.29%chance

252294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

788

Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030

Jan 18, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.27%chance

321635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

847

Will Turkey and/or Northern Cyprus occupy the Republic of Cyprus before 2030?

Jan 2, 3:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.09%chance

111583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

737

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Nov 30, 12:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

74.33%chance

181556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

956

By 2063, will the Republic of China annex any territory in the mainland?

Mar 29, 2:30 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

19%chance

211509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1523

819

Will New Zealand become a republic by 2030?

Sep 10, 12:41 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

12.33%chance

15949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1605

872

Will there be a french Sixth republic by 2040?

Aug 17, 4:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.66%chance

24699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

844

Will New Zealand become a republic by 2100?

Aug 22, 10:06 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

31.51%chance

13429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

966

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