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Prediction markets for Republican Congress

Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election

Jul 4, 2:47 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

10549288

OptionProbability

Democrats control Congress

Democrats control House, Republicans control Senate

Republicans control House, Democrats control Senate

Republicans control Congress

99

1

0

0

Will Republicans maintain a majority in the House of Representatives throughout the 119th Congress?

Nov 14, 12:17 AMJan 3, 4:59 PM

98.51%chance

1810657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8131

123

How many Republican Members of the 119th U.S. Congress (House and Senate) will resign in 2026?

Dec 9, 11:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

104883

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 2

Above 4

Above 6

Above 8

Above 10

Above 12

Above 14

Above 16

Above 18

100

93

51

40

31

21

12

8

8

8

Will Trump do a good job before the 2026 midterms?

Jul 4, 2:32 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

152275

OptionProbability

Republicans control neither House nor Senate

Republicans control Congress

Republicans control House Only

Republicans control Senate Only

99

0

0

0

Will 5 Republican members of Congress call for Trump to resign before the end of 2026?

Sep 2, 10:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

161001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will ANY Republican in congress vote to Impeach or Remove ANY member of the Trump Administration by EOY 2026?

Jan 20, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.58%chance

20550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

48

Outcome of the 2028 Presidential Election

Jul 4, 2:44 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

10479

OptionProbability

Democratic Trifecta

Democrat wins Presidency and not Congress

Republican wins Presidency and not Congress

Republican Trifecta

44

35

14

6

Will Trump do a good job?

Jul 4, 2:36 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

7194

OptionProbability

Democrat wins Presidency and not Congress

Republican wins Presidency and not Congress

Republican Trifecta

Democratic Trifecta

43

27

19

11

Will New England have 0 Republicans in Congress (Senate + House) at end of February 2027?

Jan 26, 7:14 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

17.64%chance

5161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

46

If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm at least 40 federal judges in the 120th Congress?

Oct 7, 2:54 AMJan 3, 5:00 PM

66.69%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

974

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Congress ban its members from trading individual stocks before Jan 3, 2029?

Oct 7, 2:50 AMJan 3, 5:00 PM

15%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will Congress enact a federal abortion-rights law before Jan 20, 2033?

Oct 7, 2:53 AMJan 20, 5:00 PM

1%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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