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Prediction markets for Republican Congress

Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election

Jul 4, 2:47 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

8629954

OptionProbability

Democrats control Congress

Democrats control House, Republicans control Senate

Republicans control Congress

Republicans control House, Democrats control Senate

49

38

12

0

Will Republicans maintain a majority in the House of Representatives throughout the 119th Congress?

Nov 14, 12:17 AMJan 3, 4:59 PM

97.3%chance

168417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6004

167

How many Republican Members of the 119th U.S. Congress (House and Senate) will resign in 2026?

Dec 9, 11:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94871

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 2

Above 4

Above 6

Above 8

Above 10

Above 12

Above 16

Above 14

Above 18

100

93

51

40

31

21

12

9

8

8

Will 5 Republican members of Congress call for Trump to resign before the end of 2026?

Sep 2, 10:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

161001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030?

Aug 3, 5:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.84%chance

12909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

927

Will Trump do a good job before the 2026 midterms?

Jul 4, 2:32 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

12830

OptionProbability

Republicans control neither House nor Senate

Republicans control Senate Only

Republicans control Congress

Republicans control House Only

47

44

9

1

What conservatives will come out as LGBT in 2026? (Add Answers)

Mar 16, 5:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12715

OptionProbability

Any Republican member of congress

Tim Scott

Donald Trump

Nick Fuentes

Lindsay Graham

30

11

7

7

4

Will Republicans win the Texas 15th congressional district in 2026?

Feb 27, 8:35 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

47.2%chance

9554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

113

Outcome of the 2028 Presidential Election

Jul 4, 2:44 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

10479

OptionProbability

Democratic Trifecta

Democrat wins Presidency and not Congress

Republican wins Presidency and not Congress

Republican Trifecta

44

35

14

6

Will Trump do a good job?

Jul 4, 2:36 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

7194

OptionProbability

Democrat wins Presidency and not Congress

Republican wins Presidency and not Congress

Republican Trifecta

Democratic Trifecta

43

27

19

11

Will ANY Republican in congress vote to Impeach or Remove ANY member of the Trump Administration by EOY 2026?

Jan 20, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.76%chance

10170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Will New England have 0 Republicans in Congress (Senate + House) at end of February 2027?

Jan 26, 7:14 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

46.11%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

93

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