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Prediction markets for Republican Congress

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.46%chance

750336450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6381

3459

Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?

Jun 8, 6:16 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

11.85%chance

334275403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2288

697

Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election

Jul 4, 2:47 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

6624917

OptionProbability

Democrats control House, Republicans control Senate

Democrats control Congress

Republicans control Congress

Republicans control House, Democrats control Senate

53

37

10

0

Will Republicans maintain a majority in the House of Representatives throughout the 119th Congress?

Nov 14, 12:17 AMJan 3, 4:59 PM

97.7%chance

157630

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6521

153

How many Republican Members of the 119th U.S. Congress (House and Senate) will resign in 2026?

Dec 9, 11:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84692

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 2

Above 4

Above 6

Above 8

Above 10

Above 12

Above 16

Above 14

Above 18

100

82

51

40

31

21

12

9

8

8

Will 5 Republican members of Congress call for Trump to resign before the end of 2026?

Sep 2, 10:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.72%chance

15999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

324

31

Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030?

Aug 3, 5:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.84%chance

11907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

927

Will Trump do a good job before the 2026 midterms?

Jul 4, 2:32 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

9792

OptionProbability

Republicans control Senate Only

Republicans control neither House nor Senate

Republicans control Congress

Republicans control House Only

62

24

13

1

Outcome of the 2028 Presidential Election

Jul 4, 2:44 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

10479

OptionProbability

Democratic Trifecta

Democrat wins Presidency and not Congress

Republican wins Presidency and not Congress

Republican Trifecta

44

35

14

6

Will Trump do a good job?

Jul 4, 2:36 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

6189

OptionProbability

Democrat wins Presidency and not Congress

Republican wins Presidency and not Congress

Republican Trifecta

Democratic Trifecta

44

28

20

7

Will ANY Republican in congress vote to Impeach or Remove ANY member of the Trump Administration by EOY 2026?

Jan 20, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.89%chance

774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will New England have 0 Republicans in Congress (Senate + House) at end of February 2027?

Jan 26, 7:14 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

50.05%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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