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Top stories

Utah Judge Orders GOP-Controlled Legislature to Redraw Congressional Map Within 30 Days, Opening Potential Democratic Seat Amid Trump Criticism

Utah Judge Orders GOP-Controlled Legislature to Redraw Congressional Map Within 30 Days, Opening Potential Democratic Seat Amid Trump Criticism

Authors

29

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Republican House

Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?

Jun 8, 6:16 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

6.15%chance

600533382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

41061

17836

Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?

Jun 12, 12:29 PMNov 15, 11:59 PM

7%chance

7460360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3646

274

Will Republicans maintain a majority in the House of Representatives throughout the 119th Congress?

Nov 14, 12:17 AMJan 3, 4:59 PM

97.3%chance

168417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6004

167

How many House seats do the Republicans flip in 2026?

Jan 10, 8:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

102718

OptionProbability

>= 2

>= 5

>= 10

>= 20

93

67

36

21

How many House seats will the Republicans flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:14 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

17.89%chance

72443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

836

Will Democrats win any of these ‘solid Republican’ house races?

Sep 7, 4:41 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

44.25%chance

141244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1316

618

Will Non-Republicans hold at least 53% of House seats on any day by July 27, 2027? (7/27/27)

Jul 28, 2:02 PMJul 26, 11:59 PM

65.73%chance

7577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1385

722

Will Mike Johnson have a full term as Speaker of the House before another Republican becomes Speaker?

Nov 5, 7:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.82%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

35

2026 Midterms: Will Non-Republicans hold at least 54.3% of House seats on any day by August 2, 2027? (8/2/27)

Aug 1, 6:56 PMAug 1, 11:59 PM

44.43%chance

6122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

2026 Midterms: Will Non-Republicans hold at least 55.6% of House seats on any day by July 9, 2027? (7/9/27)

Aug 8, 2:32 AMJul 8, 11:59 PM

38.49%chance

678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

Will New England have 0 Republicans in Congress (Senate + House) at end of February 2027?

Jan 26, 7:14 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

46.11%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

93

What will be the ideological caucus membership in the Republican House Caucus following the 2026 midterms?

Jul 3, 7:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

232

OptionProbability

Republican Study Committee

RSC and Freedom Caucus

RGG and RSC

Republican Governance Group

Other

Freedom Caucus

44

12

12

12

12

9

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