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Prediction markets for Republican Texas

Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?

Jan 29, 12:35 AMNov 4, 12:00 AM

33%chance

7647623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

901

Will the Republican win Texas's 2026 Senate race, conditional on D/R nominees?

Dec 8, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93126

OptionProbability

If the nominees are Cornyn and Crockett

If the nominees are Paxton and Crockett

If the nominees are Cornyn and Talarico

If the nominees are Paxton and Talarico

90

85

73

54

How many Republican Representatives will Texas elect in 2026?

Jul 25, 2:50 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

72125

OptionProbability

29-30

24

25

26

19-21

27

22

23

28

31-33

14-18

34-38

9-13

0-8

19

10

10

9

8

8

7

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?

Jul 21, 11:15 AMNov 8, 12:14 PM

84.96%chance

182044

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2377

421

Will a runoff be needed in the 2026 Republican Primary for Senate in Texas?

Jan 21, 6:28 AMMar 4, 5:28 AM

32030

OptionProbability

Yes, a runoff is needed.

No, Ken Paxton gets a majority in the first round.

No, John Cornyn gets a majority in the first round.

No, Wesley Hunt gets a majority in the first round.

73

17

8

1

Will the republican party win the 2026 texas gubernatorial election?

May 31, 4:48 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

99%chance

101493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1368

23

Who Will Win the 2026 Republican Primary Election for US Senate in Texas?

Nov 10, 12:49 AMNov 11, 5:59 AM

161484

OptionProbability

Ken Paxton

John Cornyn

Wesley Hunt

Other

Ronny Jackson

Eric Johnson

Chip Roy

Dan Patrick

Louie Gohmert

Allen West

Dan Crenshaw

59

30

10

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who will controls the house of representatives after 2026 midterms

Jan 5, 3:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15568

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

79

20

1

Will the Democrats win any statewide election in Texas by the end of 2030?

Apr 2, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.48%chance

19458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

845

Who Will Win The Republican Nomination For The Texas Senate Election

Jan 15, 2:53 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

7309

OptionProbability

Ken Paxton

John Cornyn

Wesley Hunt

66

24

10

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.91%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

833

How many of the redrawn Texas districts will Democrats win, out of the attempted Democrat to GOP flips?

Oct 25, 12:46 AMNov 10, 11:59 PM

16

OptionProbability

1

2

0

3

4

5

18

18

17

17

15

15

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