OptionProbability
YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection
NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack
NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection
NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM
65
22
8
5
Vacant House seats at start of term
Market chaos
Bonus market chaos
Bonus underlying chaos
Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results
Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day
Vacant Senate seats at start of term
Congress refuses to accept any certified result
Any major news organization retracts a call
New election ordered for any seat
Any member seated who was not the winner
Majority control discrepancy in the Senate
Majority control discrepancy in the House
Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)
Any member-elect changes parties
Senator not up for re-election changes party
Any election delayed
Any member-elect denied the oath of office
VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break
54
52
48
46
39
37
34
33
31
28
18
16
12
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
122
82
