OptionProbability
@Incompleteusern adds another answer to this market (after this answer is added)
Solve at least 3 of {P2/5 (non-APMO), P4 (APMO)}
Go to a country besides the US
Lose the game
Solve every P1/4 (non-APMO) and P1,2,3 (APMO)
Solve some P3/6 (non-APMO) or P5 (APMO)
Get highest score on a day (tied counts)
Get a Fibonacci number of points on someday (no rescale APMO)
Sweep a day
Get a 67 (no wrap around)
Stub a toe
See A Zebra IRL
Have more than a third of the answers I made resolve yes
Solve a problem with at most 6 solves in the TST group
Learn Toki Pona
Learn Rust or Haskell
Learn what a Monad is
Make IMO 2027
Learn how to play Riichi Mahjong
Eat a Hamburger while completely blindfolded
Solve a geometry problem by complex numbers or barycentric coordinates
Get strictly highest score on a day
Solve every combinatorics problem
Solve every P2/5 (non-APMO) and P4 (APMO)
Get swept on a day
Get a girlfriend before USAMO
Use the method of moving points on any geometry problem
James Bond on any day (non APMO)
Get in a romantic relationship with someone who identifies as nonbinary
07777 or 17777 APMO
Get a boyfriend before USAMO
100
85
75
72
64
57
55
51
50
49
45
41
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34
30
24
22
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12
8
7
5