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Prediction markets for Research

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

79.16%chance

22182999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3814

509

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.3%chance

5140449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

35644

2806

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14735098

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2030

2031

2029

2028

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

31

10

8

8

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.14%chance

421858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31528

3172

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

65.35%chance

10012641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

822

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1510936

OptionProbability

None

(0, 200]

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

61

23

8

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.38%chance

6610114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2385

878

If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?

Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

287407

OptionProbability

Other

Ben Goertzel

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

Paul Christiano

John Wentworth

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Janus

Alex Turner

Evan Hubinger

davidad

Buck Shlegeris

Vanessa Kosoy

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Yann LeCun

60

5

5

5

5

4

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.54%chance

777161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2241

1226

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

17.78%chance

276710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2154

466

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.88%chance

1033852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1878

1440

Will AI research be automated within the next 2 years?

Mar 31, 3:47 AMMar 31, 3:40 AM

113035

OptionProbability

AI research completely automated by April 2028

AI researchers reduced to "generation of novel research ideas" by end of 2026

45

7

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