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Prediction markets for Research

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

15.94%chance

15970513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2206

1432

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14735087

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2030

2031

2029

2028

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

31

10

8

8

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.14%chance

421858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31528

3172

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18.05%chance

3920302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21309

4693

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

21.86%chance

209674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2507

379

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

639602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1885

953

If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?

Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

287406

OptionProbability

Other

Ben Goertzel

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

Paul Christiano

John Wentworth

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Janus

Alex Turner

Evan Hubinger

davidad

Buck Shlegeris

Vanessa Kosoy

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Yann LeCun

61

5

5

5

5

4

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.31%chance

756761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1841

1310

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.5%chance

1023802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1828

1592

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will AI research be automated within the next 2 years?

Mar 31, 3:47 AMMar 31, 3:40 AM

5775

OptionProbability

AI research completely automated by April 2028

AI researchers reduced to "generation of novel research ideas" by end of 2026

44

21

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