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Prediction markets for Research

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

12.07%chance

14668226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2833

1331

Neural nets will out-perform AI researchers on peer review by end of 2025.

May 5, 5:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64%chance

13439607

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1373

619

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.68%chance

2236231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34661

2885

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14334752

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2029

2030

2028

2031

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2032

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

34

11

6

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17.28%chance

3517595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21880

4570

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.24%chance

639302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1859

958

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

552

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.63%chance

1003598

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1892

1395

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

35.27%chance

23550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13548

7381

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.32%chance

42950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4370

915

What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?

Jan 26, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.97%chance

592547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1872

1851

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

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