Research and Development News

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.29%chance

14818058

OptionVotes

YES

10070

9929

Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2026?

Jul 7, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66%chance

407813

OptionVotes

YES

1394

718

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.58%chance

156839

OptionVotes

YES

8427

3028

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.26%chance

224741

OptionVotes

YES

5159

2655

What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040?

Apr 16, 5:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

454291

OptionProbability

AGI is used in longevity research, but doesn't make significant advances

AGI is not developed

AGI is developed and turns out unfriendly/unaligned

AGI is developed and significant advances are made in longevity

AGI is developed, significant advances in longevity are made, but they require pre-natal intervention

AGI is developed, but is not used in longevity research

AGI is developed, but stays at human-like level of capabilities

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

49.22%chance

243307

OptionVotes

YES

10581

9400

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

181961

OptionVotes

YES

700

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

3864

3220

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

4652

3621

Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035?

Jun 29, 5:49 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

39.88%chance

10494

OptionVotes

YES

1228

814

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Feb 3, 10:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14.28%chance

7145

OptionVotes

YES

245

Research and Development News

Prediction markets for Research and Development

Prediction markets for Research and Development

Prediction markets for Research and Development

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2026?

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040?

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

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