Research and Innovation News

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

7748

3856

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

1075

815

Will Future Shock be a recognised medical condition?

Apr 11, 2:09 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35.94%chance

12477

OptionVotes

YES

279

241

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

Other

Prediction markets advocated as system architecture in 2026?

Jan 18, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.67%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

241

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8127

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

Prediction markets advocated as system architecture in 2027?

Feb 19, 9:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.05%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

270

Research and Innovation News

Prediction markets for Research and Innovation

Prediction markets for Research and Innovation

Prediction markets for Research and Innovation

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

Will Future Shock be a recognised medical condition?

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Prediction markets advocated as system architecture in 2026?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Prediction markets advocated as system architecture in 2027?

Will Apple Emissions end at?

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Latest stories