Research Engineers News

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3128952

OptionProbability

<10%

10-20%

20-30%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.36%chance

777061

OptionVotes

YES

2141

1245

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

1365

735

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

86.63%chance

825173

OptionVotes

YES

2598

534

Will there be a consensus that hypercomputation is possible by the end of 2050?

Jun 8, 10:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.22%chance

203337

OptionVotes

YES

2681

373

Will a nuclear thermal engine be successfully used to power a spacecraft before 2035?

Apr 12, 9:03 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

51.49%chance

322205

OptionVotes

YES

1014

969

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

151776

OptionProbability

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

AI-related cyberattack

AI-designed cyberweapon

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

Major AI safety incident or accident

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

AI-related nuclear weapon use

Will the majority of new passenger aircraft sold in 2050 be hydrogen fueled?

Jan 8, 11:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.95%chance

311630

OptionVotes

YES

1159

928

Will a vacuum lift technology be discovered or invented before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.25%chance

281570

OptionVotes

YES

1526

837

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

1669

510

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

May 27, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.57%chance

4900

OptionVotes

YES

1752

571

Will rotary detonation engine be used in commercial or research rockets by 2040?

Jan 8, 7:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

86.25%chance

8198

OptionVotes

YES

349

145

Research Engineers News

Prediction markets for Research Engineers

Prediction markets for Research Engineers

Prediction markets for Research Engineers

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Will there be a consensus that hypercomputation is possible by the end of 2050?

Will a nuclear thermal engine be successfully used to power a spacecraft before 2035?

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Will the majority of new passenger aircraft sold in 2050 be hydrogen fueled?

Will a vacuum lift technology be discovered or invented before 2040?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

Will rotary detonation engine be used in commercial or research rockets by 2040?

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