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Prediction markets for Research Scientists

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will Orban (Fidesz) win the Hungarian Election on April 12th?

Feb 14, 11:54 AMApr 12, 11:59 PM

36.49%chance

576385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

40.83%chance

34932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12039

8306

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.35%chance

444648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

753

Is Attention All You Need?

Nov 16, 5:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.84%chance

544239

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

748

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Nov 30, 9:36 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.78%chance

193924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

945

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will mainstream western scientists announce initially successful research into surgery-based Alzheimers treatments?

Nov 22, 11:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.29%chance

243248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

900

521

Will an engineered pathogen cause a pandemic before 2030?

Jun 17, 7:05 AMDec 17, 7:59 AM

7.13%chance

301864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1758

859

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

35.17%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

738

Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?

Jun 13, 7:39 AMJun 13, 8:59 PM

63.2%chance

13363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

989

Viable human eggs from human cells in a lab by 2030?

May 12, 5:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.22%chance

5207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

830

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