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Prediction markets for Research Scientists

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

26.74%chance

59478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16553

6041

Is Attention All You Need?

Nov 16, 5:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

94.62%chance

628089

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3634

134

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Aug 23, 6:50 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.69%chance

366957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15830

14208

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

18.49%chance

256659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2103

477

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.78%chance

464841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

964

918

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will mainstream western scientists announce initially successful research into surgery-based Alzheimers treatments?

Nov 22, 11:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.39%chance

253308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

960

489

Will an engineered pathogen cause a pandemic before 2030?

Jun 17, 7:05 AMDec 17, 7:59 AM

7.13%chance

301864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1758

859

Do the recent deaths/disappearances of NASA, nuclear research, & defense-related scientists suggest something sinister?

Apr 24, 12:10 AMDec 31, 10:41 PM

21.85%chance

21672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

53

Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?

Jun 13, 7:39 AMJun 13, 8:59 PM

66.67%chance

14463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

935

Viable human eggs from human cells in a lab by 2030?

May 12, 5:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.22%chance

5207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

830

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