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Prediction markets for Resemble AI

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.47%chance

335126206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6451

596

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

30.11%chance

197235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15224

6573

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.58%chance

255060

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1605

784

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.55%chance

433595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1634

496

Will top open-weight LLMs in 2025 reason opaquely?

Dec 11, 6:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.16%chance

271808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1772

564

Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?

Mar 10, 12:47 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

66.18%chance

21891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

877

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.97%chance

24571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

851

Which AI 2027 ending will the next three years look more like?

Apr 26, 2:12 AMApr 25, 10:59 PM

11393

OptionProbability

Race

Slowdown

60

40

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