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Prediction markets for Resemble AI

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.52%chance

348176056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15762

192

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

207285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15274

6551

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

275530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

619

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.41%chance

443597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

498

Will top open-weight LLMs in 2025 reason opaquely?

Dec 11, 6:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.65%chance

292358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2322

431

Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?

Mar 10, 12:47 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

61.79%chance

251176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

949

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Which AI 2027 ending will the next three years look more like?

Apr 26, 2:12 AMApr 25, 10:59 PM

13459

OptionProbability

Race

Slowdown

71

29

Will anyone sucessfully redteam creation of smallpox before 2028?

Nov 30, 11:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.21%chance

6110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

53

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