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Prediction markets for Reserve Fund

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

57.01%chance

9113224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

868

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.49%chance

153583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1546

647

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

34%chance

161626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

718

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.43%chance

111066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1321

757

What will the Fed rate be end of FY2026

Jul 22, 11:47 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

5690

OptionProbability

3 - 4.99%

1 - 2.99%

5 - 6.99%

Below 0%

0 - 0.99%

7 - 8.99%

9 - 10%

Above 10%

42

35

10

3

3

3

2

2

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40.69%chance

3391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

922

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?

Mar 3, 3:11 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

6256

OptionProbability

Between $10 billion and $50 billion

Between $1 billion and $10 billion

Between $50 billion and $100 billion

Greater than $100 billion

Has not been capitalized as of January 21, 2029

>$0, less than $1 billion

48

18

14

9

5

5

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

Feb 4, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.46%chance

4215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

932

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 4:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

25%chance

11166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2030?

Jun 9, 5:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43%chance

7137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.79%chance

6121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2035?

Jun 9, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.28%chance

6100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

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