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Prediction markets for Reserve Fund

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

429894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

27.72%chance

161851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

620

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.43%chance

111066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1321

757

Will someone successfully launder mana into real money?

Jan 19, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.61%chance

14742

OptionVotes

NO

YES

316

68

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

Feb 4, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.13%chance

5438

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

902

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40%chance

3408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

910

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?

Mar 3, 3:11 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

6256

OptionProbability

Between $10 billion and $50 billion

Between $1 billion and $10 billion

Between $50 billion and $100 billion

Greater than $100 billion

Has not been capitalized as of January 21, 2029

>$0, less than $1 billion

48

18

14

9

5

5

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.79%chance

6121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2075?

Jun 10, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.59%chance

388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

163

61

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 18, 12:01 PMOct 28, 6:25 PM

22.13%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

62

What will be the Federal Target Rate range after the final FOMC meeting of 2026?

Apr 10, 1:52 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

140

OptionProbability

3.50% – 3.75%

3.00% – 3.25%

3.25% – 3.50%

3.75% – 4.00%

Below 2.75%

2.75% – 3.00%

Above 4.00%

30

13

13

13

11

11

11

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