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Prediction markets for Reshape

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.8%chance

8838615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

841

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69%chance

12329807

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2372

673

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.17%chance

334634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1605

620

Will Worldcoin hit 100$ and if yes when will it happen ?

Dec 17, 7:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

193186

OptionProbability

No never

Yes by 2030

Yes by 2028

Yes by 2025

68

31

23

2

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.06%chance

483141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

619

Will circular economy become mainstream in 20 years?

Jan 2, 2:41 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

39.24%chance

81370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

163

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Who will be the Joseph Welch of Trumpism? (Resolves in 2045)

Mar 3, 9:15 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

7478

OptionProbability

No single individual will emerge as a clear 'Joseph Welch' figure

A Republican politician who breaks with the party

A whistleblower from within Trump's inner circle

A celebrity or public figure with broad appeal

A Supreme Court Justice

A former Trump administration official

A religious leader

A high-profile journalist or media personality

A prominent legal figure or judge

A Democratic politician

A tech industry leader

93

42

42

28

17

17

17

13

11

11

11

Most likely outcome for the United States in next 6 years

Jun 9, 7:41 PMJun 9, 7:37 PM

13141

OptionProbability

Weakened Democracy (Failed Authoritarianism)

Full Democratic Restoration

Hybrid Authoritarianism (Turkey)

Full Authoritarianism (Russia/NK)

Fractured Nation (states split into blocs)

51

25

15

6

3

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.53%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

Albert Einstein stock

Nov 15, 5:25 PM

211

OptionProbability

NO

YES

111

90

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