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Prediction markets for Reshape

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.96%chance

11227617

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1661

1184

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.34%chance

302958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1443

689

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

Will Worldcoin hit 100$ and if yes when will it happen ?

Dec 17, 7:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

192691

OptionProbability

No never

Yes by 2030

Yes by 2028

Yes by 2025

68

31

25

1

Mail-in ballots eliminated by 2026 midterms?

Aug 19, 3:40 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

2%chance

61413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

Will circular economy become mainstream in 20 years?

Jan 2, 2:41 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

39.24%chance

81370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

163

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will artificial intelligence change everyday life more than the internet did

Jun 5, 5:38 AMAug 23, 10:59 PM

37.29%chance

17393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Other

54

23

23

Most likely outcome for the United States in next 6 years

Jun 9, 7:41 PMJun 9, 7:37 PM

13141

OptionProbability

Weakened Democracy (Failed Authoritarianism)

Full Democratic Restoration

Hybrid Authoritarianism (Turkey)

Full Authoritarianism (Russia/NK)

Fractured Nation (states split into blocs)

51

25

15

6

3

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

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