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Prediction markets for Reshape

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.06%chance

10825367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1791

1279

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.09%chance

292954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

685

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

Will Worldcoin hit 100$ and if yes when will it happen ?

Dec 17, 7:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

192691

OptionProbability

No never

Yes by 2030

Yes by 2028

Yes by 2025

68

31

25

1

Will circular economy become mainstream in 20 years?

Jan 2, 2:41 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

39.24%chance

81370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

163

Will the two-sided platform facilitate at least 5,000 completed and paid ski and snowboard lesson bookings by 30.04.2027

Jan 9, 8:35 PMApr 29, 11:59 PM

6%chance

10726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

25

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Other

54

23

23

By 2040, will Alessandro Moreschi stop being the last castrato?

Dec 25, 6:16 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

31.17%chance

7136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

130

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

50

Most likely outcome for the United States in next 6 years

Jun 9, 7:41 PMJun 9, 7:37 PM

8110

OptionProbability

Weakened Democracy (Failed Authoritarianism)

Full Democratic Restoration

Hybrid Authoritarianism (Turkey)

Full Authoritarianism (Russia/NK)

Fractured Nation (states split into blocs)

42

31

16

7

3

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