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Prediction markets for Resolute Ventures

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.58%chance

275033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2328

593

Will there be more software developers employed in the United States in June 2026 than June 2025?

Jul 2, 8:15 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

56.79%chance

182100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

886

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

68.91%chance

19761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by June 30, 2026?

Jan 12, 5:35 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

69.72%chance

6757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1518

659

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by March 31, 2026?

Jan 12, 4:34 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

28.86%chance

7741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1570

637

Will NVIDIA acquire OpenAI by the end of 2028?

Jan 20, 9:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.08%chance

6524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

432

23

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40.69%chance

3391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

922

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

5308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027

Jan 12, 5:58 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

40.23%chance

5294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1219

821

Wagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)

Jan 12, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.45%chance

3280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

792

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

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