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Prediction markets for Resolute Ventures

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.58%chance

275033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2328

593

Will George Soros live to see the 2029 US presidential inauguration?

Mar 23, 3:54 AMJan 20, 12:00 PM

56.11%chance

42460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1131

884

Will there be more software developers employed in the United States in June 2026 than June 2025?

Jul 2, 8:15 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

56.79%chance

182100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

886

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.88%chance

91724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2301

435

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by March 31, 2026?

Jan 12, 4:34 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

30.22%chance

141186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1520

658

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by June 30, 2026?

Jan 12, 5:35 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

66.48%chance

7808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1409

710

Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027

Jan 12, 5:58 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

45.11%chance

6569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

907

Will any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?

Oct 29, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.24%chance

12490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

Wagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)

Jan 12, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.63%chance

5463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1446

692

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.3%chance

7432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

910

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40.69%chance

3391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

922

Will annual copper production from bio-leaching of primary sulfides exceed 10 kt by end of 2028?

Feb 9, 8:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

31.78%chance

7123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

632

525

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