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Sompo Buys Aspen Insurance for $3.5 Billion to Bolster US Reach
Authors
10
7 months ago
Prediction markets for Resolution Life
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
81.13%chance
496718382
OptionVotes
16276
14269
OptionVotes
4718
4530
Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]
Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
23.63%chance
48090212
OptionVotes
7394
4937
Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
58.61%chance
2267678
OptionVotes
6755
3832
Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?
Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM
79.96%chance
4726213
OptionVotes
3876
2009
Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?
May 24, 1:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10%chance
14221056
OptionVotes
3458
1706
Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?
Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25%chance
8310020
OptionVotes
2851
760
Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?
Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
24%chance
538570
OptionVotes
1780
562
Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?
Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
60.72%chance
266730
OptionVotes
1219
804
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.51%chance
195543
OptionVotes
10062
2804
Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.96%chance
123209
OptionVotes
6132
3376
OptionProbability
17
17
17
17
17
17