Resolution Life News

Sompo Buys Aspen Insurance for $3.5 Billion to Bolster US Reach

3 months ago

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.4%chance

471686608

OptionVotes

YES

17380

10301

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.4%chance

47990058

OptionVotes

YES

7184

5003

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

1964882

OptionVotes

YES

6128

4633

When or where will Trump die?

Jan 4, 3:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12026130

OptionProbability

In the US

Before we get ASI

After his presidency

Before we get AGI

At or greater than 20m above sea level (using https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-nb18/United-States/ to verify if necessary)

In a hospital

In Florida

Surrounded by his friends and loved ones

Mar-a-Lago

After 2035

Before 2030

On a Friday

On a Monday

On a Tuesday

On a Sunday

On a Wednesday

On a Thursday

On a Saturday

While in office

Outside (not in a vehicle or building)

On an airplane

2029

During WW3

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

The White House

2027

2028

2034

2035

While doing a speech

In front of a camera

2025

On a gold toilet

In Russia

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

80%chance

4625903

OptionVotes

YES

3882

2007

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.04%chance

10423559

OptionVotes

YES

10119

734

Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?

May 24, 1:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.11%chance

14018007

OptionVotes

YES

2694

1804

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.44%chance

839820

OptionVotes

YES

2695

815

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

23.95%chance

538569

OptionVotes

YES

1782

561

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

256660

OptionVotes

YES

1201

816

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

9916

2845

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

6132

3376

Resolution Life News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Resolution Life

Prediction markets for Resolution Life

Prediction markets for Resolution Life

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

When or where will Trump die?

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

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