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Top stories

DNC Pulls Two-State Gaza Measure After Panel Rejects Israel Arms Embargo

US Foreign Policy

US Domestic Policy

DNC Pulls Two-State Gaza Measure After Panel Rejects Israel Arms Embargo

Authors

22

20 hours ago

Prediction markets for Resolutions Committee

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision in September

Aug 1, 4:13 PMSep 17, 5:59 PM

225146134

OptionProbability

25 bps decrease

No change

50+ bps decrease

Increase

77

18

5

0

Did Stephen Wolfram solve the second law of thermodynamics?

May 25, 12:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4.75%chance

285207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4479

223

Federal Reserve upper bound at least 5.00% on December 31?

Apr 23, 2:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.25%chance

94138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4749

211

Will Mike Waltz be confirmed as Ambassador to the United Nations?

May 6, 8:16 PMDec 31, 9:14 PM

86.04%chance

212273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2482

403

Elon Musk financially backs campaign to remove Trump from office?

Jun 6, 3:13 PMDec 31, 4:06 PM

15.08%chance

171970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2373

421

Elon Musk called to testify before Congress by 2028?

Apr 13, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.15%chance

271823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1948

513

Number of Harvard Corporation members who resign before November 15th, 2025

May 22, 4:15 AMNov 14, 11:59 PM

52.61%chance

4896

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

949

Will Hanoi ban gas powered bikes within Ring Roads 1 within one year?

Jul 15, 10:32 PMJul 15, 10:28 PM

49.66%chance

3661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

993

Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027?

Feb 18, 11:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.6%chance

11602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1322

757

Will Congress confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2025?

Dec 18, 3:18 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

11.26%chance

16269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

281

36

If we sue our HVAC contractor for charging us travel fees when we have a warranty on labor, will we win?

May 15, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.32%chance

5142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

51

How many votes to confirm Mike Waltz as UN Ambassador by September 19?

Jun 29, 5:46 AMSep 20, 11:59 PM

172

OptionProbability

49 or fewer

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58 or more

43

15

9

6

4

4

4

4

4

4

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