Resolv Labs News

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.6%chance

22594845505

OptionVotes

YES

19480

4415

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

22.57%chance

183788836

OptionVotes

YES

185221

53989

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

28550

2982

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.29%chance

15211730

OptionVotes

YES

7799

3854

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

15025

6656

When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?

Apr 10, 12:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

227085

OptionProbability

Before the end of 2026

Before the end of Jun 2025

Before the end of Dec 2025

Before the end of Apr 2024

Before the end of May 2024

Before the end of Jun 2024

Before the end of July 2024

Before the end of Aug 2024

Before the end of Sep 2024

Before the end of Oct 2024

Before the end of Nov 2024

Before the end of Dec 2024

When will the Covid lab leak market resolve?

Dec 25, 2:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

395303

OptionProbability

Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2040?

Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2030?

Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2040?

Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2030?

Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2026?

Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2024?

Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2026?

Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2024?

If the COVID lab leak market resolves NO, will it be controversial?

Jul 28, 4:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.15%chance

252416

OptionVotes

YES

1134

616

By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve?

Jan 21, 3:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

182308

OptionProbability

By end of 2050

By end of 2030

By end of 2028

By end of 2025

By end of July 2024

By end of 2024

If the COVID lab leak market resolves YES, will it be controversial?

Jul 28, 4:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.23%chance

241905

OptionVotes

YES

954

902

What will the top score on Epoch AI's Chess Puzzles benchmark be on November 30, 2026?

Nov 1, 4:26 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 78%

78% to below 82%

82% to below 88%

88% or higher

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory, and will Isaac King's market on it be resolved correctly?

May 26, 10:26 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

150

Resolv Labs News

Prediction markets for Resolv Labs

Prediction markets for Resolv Labs

Prediction markets for Resolv Labs

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?

When will the Covid lab leak market resolve?

If the COVID lab leak market resolves NO, will it be controversial?

By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve?

If the COVID lab leak market resolves YES, will it be controversial?

What will the top score on Epoch AI's Chess Puzzles benchmark be on November 30, 2026?

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory, and will Isaac King's market on it be resolved correctly?

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