Resolv Labs News

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

44.24%chance

20484293101

OptionVotes

YES

13969

7302

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.25%chance

183266085

OptionVotes

YES

17639

7122

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1937355

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

25533

3383

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

19679

5082

When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?

Apr 10, 12:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

226365

OptionProbability

Before the end of 2026

Before the end of Dec 2025

Before the end of Jun 2025

Before the end of Apr 2024

Before the end of May 2024

Before the end of Jun 2024

Before the end of July 2024

Before the end of Aug 2024

Before the end of Sep 2024

Before the end of Oct 2024

Before the end of Nov 2024

Before the end of Dec 2024

When will the Covid lab leak market resolve?

Dec 25, 2:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

324993

OptionProbability

Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2040?

Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2030?

Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2040?

Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2026?

Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2030?

Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2024?

Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2026?

Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2024?

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

49.22%chance

243307

OptionVotes

YES

10581

9400

If the COVID lab leak market resolves NO, will it be controversial?

Jul 28, 4:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.15%chance

252416

OptionVotes

YES

1134

616

By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve?

Jan 21, 3:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

152225

OptionProbability

By end of 2050

By end of 2030

By end of 2028

By end of 2025

By end of July 2024

By end of 2024

If the COVID lab leak market resolves YES, will it be controversial?

Jul 28, 4:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.75%chance

231805

OptionVotes

YES

1050

870

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory, and will Isaac King's market on it be resolved correctly?

May 26, 10:26 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

120

Resolv Labs News

Prediction markets for Resolv Labs

Prediction markets for Resolv Labs

Prediction markets for Resolv Labs

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?

When will the Covid lab leak market resolve?

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

If the COVID lab leak market resolves NO, will it be controversial?

By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve?

If the COVID lab leak market resolves YES, will it be controversial?

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory, and will Isaac King's market on it be resolved correctly?

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