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Prediction markets for Resolve AI

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.57%chance

324859502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7349

3560

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Jan 31, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

8035836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2861

2496

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.87%chance

4819294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

870

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.87%chance

7513433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

637

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43%chance

284981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

923

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 31, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.34%chance

573097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

956

946

Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?

Dec 11, 12:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.82%chance

371628

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

943

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.47%chance

281614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

750

Will the METR AI coding uplift market be resolved based on the Feb 2026 updated estimate?

Feb 24, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.34%chance

7654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

979

I have been entrusted with an AI in a Box. Should I let it out? [Resolves to superintelligence]

Nov 27, 11:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

34.83%chance

12502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

957

Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028

Sep 23, 3:41 PMApr 2, 9:59 PM

81.12%chance

15477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1214

928

If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?

Jul 2, 8:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.05%chance

18461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

943

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