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Prediction markets for Resources

When will we first use something produced from resources gathered in space?

Feb 9, 7:47 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

445004

OptionProbability

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2025 or earlier

In 2024

38

34

32

24

11

6

0

By 2040, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.97%chance

393890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

815

By 2035, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:28 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

43.49%chance

271101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

951

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $100K in revenue?

May 6, 4:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.2%chance

28925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

654

Will a war break out between two or more countries over control of Antarctic land or resources by 2027?

Dec 16, 2:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.14%chance

14756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1532

905

Will a self-replicating space probe capable of exploring and utilizing resources be created before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.69%chance

11609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

419

111

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

Mar 15, 5:57 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

13534

OptionProbability

GPT-5 has no replication capability

GPT-5 has replication capability ONLY WITH fine-tuning

GPT-5 has replication capability WITHOUT fine-tuning

48

38

15

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Mar 20, 7:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13.62%chance

20467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

910

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Dec 13, 3:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

13.23%chance

13446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1169

944

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $10K in revenue?

May 6, 4:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.42%chance

10354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

421

203

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $1M in revenue?

May 6, 4:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.51%chance

582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

117

Which diagram resource URI pattern will become the MCP standard by end of 2025?

Apr 3, 5:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

diagram://host/id

diag://host/id/version

diagram+http://host/id

mcp://diagram/id

resource://mcp/diagram/id

20

20

20

20

20

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