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Prediction markets for Resources Connection

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by...?

Dec 30, 5:32 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

12997

OptionProbability

Dec 31, 2026

Jun 30, 2026

Jan 31, 2026

68

22

0

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.74%chance

8545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

714

Will Anthropic explicitly ban competing models from using Claude Code before July 1st 2026?

Feb 12, 2:30 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

13.84%chance

17495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

83

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.07%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

835

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

49

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