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Prediction markets for Rest

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Mar 13, 4:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

94.9%chance

1626673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4312

232

Will the final resting place of MH370 be found by 2025?

Jan 25, 4:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.23%chance

262334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

697

What government positions will Tom Scott (the YouTuber) hold for any length of time in the rest of his life?

Apr 28, 4:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

122142

OptionProbability

Chief of Staff

Leader (majority or minority)

Ambassador

Mayor

Representative

Cabinet Secretary

President

Governor

Supreme Court Justice

Attorney General

Vice President

10

10

8

8

8

7

6

4

4

4

4

Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life?

May 20, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.12%chance

351615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

662

What government positions will Pete Buttigieg hold for any length of time in the rest of his life?

Apr 25, 4:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221147

OptionProbability

Vice President

Governor

Senator

Representative

Chief of Staff

President

Ambassador

House Leader/Whip/Speaker

Mayor

Supreme Court Justice

45

35

30

25

24

23

17

13

12

3

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Feb 20, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.66%chance

7639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

728

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Jun 13, 6:27 PMJan 20, 7:27 PM

62.8%chance

18594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

985

What government positions will Mike Johnson hold for any length of time in the rest of his life?

Apr 25, 4:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10444

OptionProbability

Senator

Attorney General

Governor

Ambassador

Mayor

Cabinet Secretary

Chief of Staff

Vice President

President

Supreme Court Justice

27

24

22

20

19

18

18

14

9

7

Will I achieve <12 hours of browsing per week on average for the rest of summer (23 Jun 2025 to 22 Sep 2025)?

Jun 21, 3:15 AMSep 23, 3:01 AM

26.87%chance

7183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

61

Will the West still be rich in 100 years (compared to the rest of the world)?

Jan 17, 7:38 AMJan 17, 7:38 AM

73%chance

6107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

152

Will my abdominal wall remain intact for the rest of my life?

Jan 1, 1:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

53

Will Shawn Fain be the president of the UAW for the rest of his life?

Sep 28, 5:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.7%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

75

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