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Prediction markets for Rest

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Jan 8, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.84%chance

926459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

What government positions will Kamala Harris hold for any length of time in the rest of her life?

Apr 22, 5:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

423975

OptionProbability

Attorney General

Governor

Cabinet Secretary

Senator

Mayor

Ambassador

Leader/Whip/Speaker (majority or minority)

Representative

President

Chief of Staff

Supreme Court Justice

26

16

13

12

12

11

11

11

8

4

3

Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life?

May 20, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26%chance

422275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

945

What government positions will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hold for any length of time in the rest of her life?

Apr 16, 9:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

461992

OptionProbability

Senator

Cabinet Secretary

Governor

President

Vice President

Whip (majority or minority)

Leader (majority or minority)

Ambassador

Chief Economist

Chief of Staff

Mayor

46

26

22

18

18

16

13

12

10

8

5

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Jun 13, 6:27 PMJan 20, 7:27 PM

44.84%chance

201164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1315

620

What government positions will Nikki Haley hold for any length of time in the rest of her life?

Apr 16, 9:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14767

OptionProbability

Cabinet Secretary

Ambassador

Vice President

Governor

Senator

Chief of Staff

Representative

President

Supreme Court Justice

37

36

18

18

17

16

14

10

3

What government positions will Mike Johnson hold for any length of time in the rest of his life?

Apr 25, 4:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10444

OptionProbability

Senator

Attorney General

Governor

Ambassador

Mayor

Cabinet Secretary

Chief of Staff

Vice President

President

Supreme Court Justice

27

24

22

20

19

18

18

14

9

7

Will BJP remain the ruling party in India for the rest of this decade?

Jan 24, 5:09 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

79.69%chance

8213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

246

108

[M$100 subsidy] Will the Staten Island Railway be connected to the rest of New York City's subway system before 2046?

Sep 28, 1:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.92%chance

5185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

352

153

Will "Simulating the rest of the political disagr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 6, 5:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.01%chance

3125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

988

If you make an ugly woman your wife, will you be happy for the rest of your life?

Jun 5, 11:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.82%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

71

Will Shawn Fain be the president of the UAW for the rest of his life?

Sep 28, 5:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.7%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

75

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