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Prediction markets for Rest

What government positions will Kamala Harris hold for any length of time in the rest of her life?

Apr 22, 5:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

423975

OptionProbability

Attorney General

Governor

Cabinet Secretary

Senator

Mayor

Ambassador

Leader/Whip/Speaker (majority or minority)

Representative

President

Chief of Staff

Supreme Court Justice

26

16

13

12

12

11

11

11

8

4

3

Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life?

May 20, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.33%chance

422300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

983

970

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

May 2, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.46%chance

41363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2331

429

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Jun 13, 6:27 PMJan 20, 7:27 PM

43.08%chance

221199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

593

What government positions will Pete Buttigieg hold for any length of time in the rest of his life?

Apr 25, 4:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

231174

OptionProbability

Vice President

Governor

Senator

President

Representative

Chief of Staff

Ambassador

House Leader/Whip/Speaker

Mayor

Supreme Court Justice

39

35

30

23

23

21

17

13

12

3

[Order of the Stick] Which characters will survive the rest of the comic?

Jul 26, 1:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

121173

OptionProbability

Elan

Roy Greenhilt

Durkon Thundershield

Haley Starshine

Minrah Shaleshoe

O-Chul

Lien

Vaarsuvius

Redcloak

Xykon

Belkar Bitterleaf

84

81

81

80

72

59

59

43

37

22

15

What government positions will Mike Johnson hold for any length of time in the rest of his life?

Apr 25, 4:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11496

OptionProbability

Attorney General

Ambassador

Governor

Senator

Cabinet Secretary

Mayor

Chief of Staff

Vice President

President

Supreme Court Justice

21

20

20

19

17

17

16

14

9

7

[M$100 subsidy] Will the Staten Island Railway be connected to the rest of New York City's subway system before 2046?

Sep 28, 1:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.92%chance

5185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

352

153

Will "Simulating the rest of the political disagr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 6, 5:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.01%chance

3125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

988

Will the West still be rich in 100 years (compared to the rest of the world)?

Jan 17, 7:38 AMJan 17, 7:38 AM

73%chance

6107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

152

If you make an ugly woman your wife, will you be happy for the rest of your life?

Jun 5, 11:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.82%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

71

Will Shawn Fain be the president of the UAW for the rest of his life?

Sep 28, 5:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.7%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

75

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