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Prediction markets for Rest

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Mar 13, 4:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

96.89%chance

1627945

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5580

179

Will the final resting place of MH370 be found by 2025?

Jan 25, 4:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6.91%chance

303704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1901

875

Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life?

May 20, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.82%chance

391866

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

764

What government positions will Pete Buttigieg hold for any length of time in the rest of his life?

Apr 25, 4:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221147

OptionProbability

Vice President

Governor

Senator

Representative

Chief of Staff

President

Ambassador

House Leader/Whip/Speaker

Mayor

Supreme Court Justice

45

35

30

25

24

23

17

13

12

3

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Jun 13, 6:27 PMJan 20, 7:27 PM

38.11%chance

191064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1456

520

[Order of the Stick] Which characters will survive the rest of the comic?

Jul 26, 1:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

111055

OptionProbability

Roy Greenhilt

Durkon Thundershield

Elan

Haley Starshine

Minrah Shaleshoe

O-Chul

Lien

Vaarsuvius

Redcloak

Belkar Bitterleaf

Xykon

81

81

80

80

72

59

59

43

37

22

22

What government positions will Nikki Haley hold for any length of time in the rest of her life?

Apr 16, 9:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14767

OptionProbability

Cabinet Secretary

Ambassador

Vice President

Governor

Senator

Chief of Staff

Representative

President

Supreme Court Justice

37

36

18

18

17

16

14

10

3

Will Tyler Robinson survive the rest of 2025?

Sep 12, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93.51%chance

16741

OptionVotes

NO

YES

380

26

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Feb 20, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.15%chance

8656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

720

[M$100 subsidy] Will the Staten Island Railway be connected to the rest of New York City's subway system before 2046?

Sep 28, 1:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.92%chance

5185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

352

153

Will "Simulating the rest of the political disagr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 6, 5:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.01%chance

3125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

988

Will Shawn Fain be the president of the UAW for the rest of his life?

Sep 28, 5:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.7%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

75

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