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Prediction markets for Rest of World
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1306
886
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Who will cheerfully explain to @Krantz why his proposed solution to alignment of ASI isn't valid?
Jul 31, 6:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
116854
OptionProbability
7
6
6
6
5
5
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Will there be a schism in the US Catholic Church prior to end of 2025?
Dec 18, 9:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9.41%chance
201717
OptionVotes
2002
822
OptionVotes
1510
524
Will North Korea and South Korea be unified with a formula like 'one country, two systems' by 2030?
Apr 14, 3:18 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
10.69%chance
231551
OptionVotes
996
696
OptionVotes
1601
628
OptionVotes
1618
466
Will Midjourney be forced to exclude some artists from training data by 2026?
Aug 28, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
36.9%chance
18998
OptionVotes
1245
820
[Metaculus] Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that India's average fertility rate for 2032 & 2033 will be < 2.0?
Mar 29, 2:56 PMJan 3, 6:00 PM
92.96%chance
10738
OptionVotes
1548
887
OptionProbability
48
19
7
7
7
6
5
3
Will the West still be rich in 100 years (compared to the rest of the world)?
Jan 17, 7:38 AMJan 17, 7:38 AM
73%chance
6107
OptionVotes
199
152