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Prediction markets for Resy

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.02%chance

11121965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3565

1458

Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?

Jan 18, 11:47 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

22.77%chance

10117595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2887

1529

Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?

Dec 17, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

68.2%chance

467483

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

860

Will Kamala Harris resign in her first term?

Sep 19, 8:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.37%chance

256100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4678

214

Will Mitch McConnell resign or die before the end of his term in 2027?

Jul 27, 7:24 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

38%chance

383415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1468

408

Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 10:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.49%chance

282943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1348

742

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2050?

Aug 9, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.63%chance

412228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

881

Will the Louvre director be fired or resign by 2027?

Dec 11, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.21%chance

61539

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

958

U.S. implements residence-based taxation for Americans abroad by 2028

Feb 17, 2:51 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

24.09%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1833

611

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

13657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

859

Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?

Oct 27, 3:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

56.39%chance

4505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

879

Will Álvaro Arbeloa be sacked or resign before the end of the 2025–26 season?

Jan 15, 6:58 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

43.06%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

870

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