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Prediction markets for Resy

Will Mitch McConnell resign or die before the end of his term in 2027?

Jul 27, 7:24 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

5.38%chance

14038628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3082

79

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

5.41%chance

11424490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6015

1265

Will Donald Trump resign as US President during his second term?

Nov 6, 6:57 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

6.96%chance

4219957

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3656

274

Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?

Jan 18, 11:47 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

30.63%chance

10218504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2226

1767

Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?

Dec 17, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

83.78%chance

518999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1892

621

Will Kamala Harris resign in her first term?

Sep 19, 8:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.57%chance

266105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4571

219

Will JD Vance resign as US Vice President during Trump's second term?

Nov 6, 7:39 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

14.13%chance

233625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2465

406

Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 10:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.37%chance

333275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

858

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2050?

Aug 9, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.63%chance

412228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

881

U.S. implements residence-based taxation for Americans abroad by 2028

Feb 17, 2:51 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

22.24%chance

91400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1933

580

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

13657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

859

Will "Shutdown Resistance in Reasoning Models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 7, 12:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

19%chance

372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

730

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