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Prediction markets for Resy

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

9.7%chance

11122065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3665

1447

Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?

Jan 18, 11:47 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

27.21%chance

10118004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2478

1665

Will Donald Trump resign as US President during his second term?

Nov 6, 6:57 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

3.61%chance

3917422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5165

194

Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?

Dec 17, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63%chance

487844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

942

937

Will Kamala Harris resign in her first term?

Sep 19, 8:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.53%chance

266104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4592

218

Will Mitch McConnell resign or die before the end of his term in 2027?

Jul 27, 7:24 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

24.1%chance

413962

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1803

259

Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 10:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.44%chance

293090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

859

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2050?

Aug 9, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.63%chance

412228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

881

U.S. implements residence-based taxation for Americans abroad by 2028

Feb 17, 2:51 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

22.24%chance

91400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1933

580

Will Álvaro Arbeloa be sacked or resign before the end of the 2025–26 season?

Jan 15, 6:58 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

35.33%chance

6812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1353

739

Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?

Oct 27, 3:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

51%chance

6799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

13657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

859

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