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Prediction markets for Retail

Will FTX.US retail receive >30c?

Dec 20, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

98.12%chance

4122781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4378

390

Crypto currency retail trading will be banned in the USA before the end of 2027 due to use in war/terrorism/etc

Mar 22, 8:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.66%chance

85591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3247

308

SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Oct 9, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.57%chance

211369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1752

571

Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?

Sep 6, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.33%chance

241227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1517

626

Will robots (think Tesla’s Optimus) replace retail workers by 2030?

Jan 19, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.12%chance

22979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

883

Will at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.09%chance

4790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

591

Will FTX.US retail receive >50c?

Jan 13, 5:08 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.38%chance

10710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

855

Will transparent MicroLED displays be available at retailers by end 2026?

Feb 27, 1:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.92%chance

13609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1127

917

When will Tesla have Optimus walking around in retail stores?

Dec 27, 8:44 PMJan 4, 7:59 AM

9315

OptionProbability

Never

2027

2026

2028

2029

2030

2025

71

11

6

4

4

3

1

Will there be a high-street retail outlet successfully running with only robotic and AI systems, for at least a week without intervention from a physically-present person, before 2027?

Jan 26, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

7161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

205

91

Will Lumina ship their oral probiotic to an EU retail customer before 2028?

Sep 6, 4:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3128

OptionProbability

Later or never

Before January 2027

Before July 2027

Before January 2028

Before July 2026

76

50

50

50

21

US Christmas holiday retail sales higher in 2026?

Jan 7, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.71%chance

226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

95

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