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Prediction markets for Retail

Will FTX.US retail receive >30c?

Dec 20, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

98.12%chance

4122781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4378

390

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

217286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15272

6552

SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Oct 9, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.72%chance

191273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

604

Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?

Sep 6, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

231222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

621

Will robots (think Tesla’s Optimus) replace retail workers by 2030?

Jan 19, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.12%chance

22979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

883

Will FTX.US retail receive >50c?

Jan 13, 5:08 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.38%chance

10710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

855

Will transparent MicroLED displays be available at retailers by end 2026?

Feb 27, 1:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.92%chance

13609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1127

917

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Sep 6, 5:04 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

14.65%chance

12410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

943

How much will 64G RAM cost at retail on June 1st?

Jan 30, 3:16 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

3240

OptionProbability

> £100

> £200

> £300

> £400

> £500

> £600

> £700

> £800

88

77

73

66

50

41

34

24

Will Union Square in San Francisco have a retail direct vacancy rate lower than 13% in Q1 2026?

Feb 13, 6:49 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

30.77%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will San Francisco have a retail vacancy rate lower than 4.5% in Q1 2026?

Feb 13, 6:38 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

29.39%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

US Christmas holiday retail sales higher in 2026?

Jan 7, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.71%chance

226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

95

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