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Prediction markets for Retro
Will Manifest offer a mana discount and/or can it be applied retroactively?
Mar 16, 11:38 PMDec 31, 12:28 AM
188872
OptionProbability
64
35
2
OptionProbability
89
74
68
54
51
47
38
37
34
32
28
24
22
21
21
16
1
If Tetraspace does X will she think it was a great idea in retrospect?
Nov 25, 12:26 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
283167
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
90
88
78
78
78
77
66
64
60
51
48
39
7
0
0
If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?
Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
64.88%chance
161389
OptionVotes
1019
976
If April does X will she think it was a great idea in retrospect?
Dec 11, 7:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
121110
OptionProbability
100
100
100
90
73
72
52
35
0
OptionProbability
22
20
20
13
10
6
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Retro Biosciences succeed in increasing healthy human lifespan by ten years?
Dec 24, 2:24 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM
17.65%chance
16276
OptionVotes
1168
945
OptionProbability
73
70
66
62
61
51
34
Will the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter successfully range the Laser Retro-reflector Array on IM-1 Odysseus?
Feb 27, 11:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
74.8%chance
8190
OptionVotes
342
155
Will there be "Trump's Basilisk" for Trump retroactively going after all who didn't support his becoming AGI-powerful
Jan 7, 10:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
15.19%chance
6183
OptionVotes
236
42
Will latch.bio, retro.bio, mox, or lighthaven get a libernovo Omni dynamic ergonomic chair by eoy2031
Nov 9, 12:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
30.77%chance
150
OptionVotes
150
67
OptionVotes
110
91