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Top stories

OpenAI, Retro Bio Use GPT-4b Model to Boost Cell Reprogramming 50-Fold

OpenAI, Retro Bio Use GPT-4b Model to Boost Cell Reprogramming 50-Fold

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Retro

Will Manifest offer a mana discount and/or can it be applied retroactively?

Mar 16, 11:38 PMDec 31, 12:28 AM

188872

OptionProbability

Mana discount, no retro

Mana discount, retro allowed

No mana discount

64

35

2

If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?

Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.88%chance

161389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

What will be the cool word for "cool" in 2032?

Sep 20, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25483

OptionProbability

cool

6 7

Other

based

retro

spice

sigma

heat

whale

TRANCHE

loose

numb

left

sunk

cought

caught

cot

warm

tepid

luke

damp

jank

sweet

sick

gas

沉着的 chénzhuóde

cloe

swag

31

16

16

11

10

5

4

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Retro Biosciences succeed in increasing healthy human lifespan by ten years?

Dec 24, 2:24 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

17.65%chance

16276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

945

If Celene does X will she think it's a great idea in retrospect?

Dec 12, 5:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8238

OptionProbability

Ketamine (recreationally)

Takes Estrogen

celebrating christmas?

Visits the Bay in the first half of February

Ketamine (medically)

Invites @transkatgirl to live with her in her room

Takes out a life insurance plan.

73

70

66

62

61

51

34

Will "MATS 9 Retrospective & Advice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 16, 6:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.91%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

987

Will the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter successfully range the Laser Retro-reflector Array on IM-1 Odysseus?

Feb 27, 11:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.8%chance

8190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

342

155

Will there be "Trump's Basilisk" for Trump retroactively going after all who didn't support his becoming AGI-powerful

Jan 7, 10:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.19%chance

6183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

By the end of 2032, will GiveWell have retroactively reduced their estimates of the effectiveness of AMF between 2014 and 2019 by at least a factor of 2?

Dec 15, 8:30 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

21%chance

8145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

291

145

Retrotransposon activation identified as the primary root cause of ageing by 2035?

Sep 8, 8:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.07%chance

3140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

49

If humanity survives this century, what beta will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1st Jan 2024

Jun 13, 11:38 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17%chance

3122

OptionProbability

NO

YES

285

169

Will Altos Labs poach anyone from retro.bio by EOY2028?

Dec 3, 5:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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