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What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

90217127

OptionProbability

Other

$190-200B

$200-210B

$180-190B

$210-220B

$170-180B

$220-230B

$230-240B

$240-250B

$250-260B

$260-270B

$130-140B

$140-150B

$160-170B

$270-280B

$280-290B

$290-300B

$110-120B

$120-130B

$150-160B

<$40B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$80-90B

$90-100B

$100-110B

$40-50B

$50-60B

18

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity]

Jan 25, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.76%chance

4856873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12570

7955

Who will the Trump administration go after?

Nov 13, 7:18 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

5722921

OptionProbability

Mainstream Media

Letitia James

LQBTQ / Trans People

Migrants

Dr. Fauci

LGBTQ+ / Transgender service members

January 6th Committee

Jack Smith

Blinken

Jimmy Kimmel

Alejandro Mayorkas

Fluoride

The Bidens

Miles Taylor

Zohran Mamdani

Jerome Powell

Bruce Springsteen

Merrick Garland

Elon Musk

Michael Cohen

Christopher Steele

Texas Democrats (as a group)

VAWA self-petitioners

Liz Cheney

Furries

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Vindman

FDIC

Rev. Budde/ Episcopal Church

Susie Wiles

Beyonce

Mike Pence

Brad Raffensperger

Black Nationals

E. Jean Carroll

Rosie O'Donnell

Karoline Leavitt

Jeff Bezos

Taylor Swift

Alec Baldwin

Kevin McCarthy

100

100

100

100

100

100

99

99

99

93

90

83

80

80

78

67

66

58

56

53

50

50

50

49

49

45

43

41

41

39

35

33

31

25

23

14

13

8

5

3

3

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Dec 30, 6:37 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

3.89%chance

5412514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

982

961

Linus media group reviews a sex toy.

Jan 9, 4:12 AMJan 2, 4:12 AM

31.48%chance

7512267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14755

6778

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

399880

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2003

501

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

108006

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

27

23

21

14

9

5

2

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.12%chance

276740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

814

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.16%chance

65556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15218

6571

What will be Eutass Kid's fate ?

Jul 11, 5:32 PMJul 12, 2:59 AM

515074

OptionProbability

4-JIKA COMES BACK AND BEATS SHANKS

6-Kid does his best to re enter the race to the one piece(invalid if number 3 happens)

5-Kid gives up

1-Useless Mid is dead

2-Joins another faction(BB, revs, cross guild, etc)

7-Other

3-Kid will be trained by Shanks and/or giants

83

12

2

1

1

1

0

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce over $100,000 in revenue?

Sep 20, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

161838

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

What will the next USB power delivery standard be called?

Aug 2, 7:36 AMAug 3, 3:59 AM

11

OptionProbability

USB Power Delivery Rev. 3.1 (V. 1.2x2)

N/A

USB Power Delivery Rev. 3.1 (V. 1.2.1)

USB Power Delivery Rev. 3.2 (V. 2.1)

USB Power Delivery Rev. 4.0

Other

18

16

16

16

16

16

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