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Prediction markets for Revolution

Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?

Oct 14, 5:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.63%chance

494553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1431

856

Will the US have a revolution before 2100?

Aug 21, 11:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

283911

OptionProbability

No revolution

Fascist/Nationalist revolution

Other revolution

Communist/Socialist revolution

48

40

8

3

Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?

May 18, 10:12 PMApr 21, 5:59 AM

56%chance

363606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

960

Will there be an “overnight” math revolution changing what we known as encryption forever by 2028

Aug 18, 9:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.12%chance

412698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

790

Will there be a revolution in biotechnology within the next four years?

Dec 18, 1:23 AMMar 2, 7:59 AM

55.04%chance

322350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

524

Will there be a successful global socialist revolution by 2042?

Apr 17, 9:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.87%chance

161973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1343

913

Will a socialist or communist revolution happen in a NATO country by 2030?

Nov 24, 11:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.33%chance

23668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

871

Will the revolution be televised?

Jul 25, 1:43 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

44.52%chance

5260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

87

Will the Full Self Driving revolution be bigger then the Smartphone revolution by at least one order of magnitude?

May 13, 12:30 AMDec 20, 4:59 AM

31.23%chance

9199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

67

Major media use 'Cultural Revolution' for US events by Sep 30, 2025?

Mar 23, 2:00 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

16.12%chance

10178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

44

Who, if anyone, will emerge as an authoritarian leader figure in the Martian Revolution or its immediate aftermath?

Jan 31, 11:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5141

OptionProbability

No authoritarian leader emerges

Axel Cartwright

Alexandra Claire

Mabel Dore

Booth Gonzalez

Other

55

9

9

9

9

9

Will I finish reading Bernie Sanders' Our Revolution by the end of August 2025?

Jun 18, 10:47 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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