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Prediction markets for Revolutionary Guard

Will Iran actually participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Mar 1, 2:59 PMJun 10, 11:59 PM

36.59%chance

9221782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1479

974

How many days in a row will the Iranian war strikes last?

Mar 1, 2:24 PMMar 31, 1:21 PM

404141

OptionProbability

Strikes go beyond March 30th

15-30 days (strikes end by March 30)

2-3 days (strikes end by March 3)

4-7 days (strikes end by March 7)

8-14 days (strikes end by March 14)

Other

74

25

0

0

0

0

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

74.48%chance

313641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

936

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.87%chance

192517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1254

797

Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027

Mar 7, 12:40 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

12.87%chance

191907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2601

384

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?

Mar 11, 11:42 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

22.28%chance

241245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

54

Will US take control of Strait of Hormuz before April 1st?

Mar 15, 5:52 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM

12.61%chance

281207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?

Jan 5, 3:23 PMJan 1, 3:20 PM

60%chance

321139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

82

Will Iran get a new Supreme Leader before the end of April?

Mar 24, 9:37 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

22%chance

8582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27%chance

16338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.6%chance

10139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Jun 21, 8:56 PMJun 21, 8:54 PM

62.81%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

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