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Prediction markets for Revolutionary Guard

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75.5%chance

368304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1755

570

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

85.92%chance

415204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1910

754

Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027

Mar 7, 12:40 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

12.19%chance

202021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2685

373

If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?

Jan 5, 3:23 PMJan 1, 3:20 PM

75.9%chance

341256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

56

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.1%chance

25656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?

Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

29.82%chance

13556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

489

269

Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026?

Apr 7, 3:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.28%chance

10320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

10154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will we actually see someone bomb an AI datacenter before 2027?

Jun 11, 3:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.42%chance

3130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

670

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Jun 21, 8:56 PMJun 21, 8:54 PM

62.81%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

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